Another city has fallen: Missile strikes on Moscow are being prepared. The deadline is known.
Russia modestly reports on the biggest victory since the fall of Mariupol in 2022. But it's also awaiting a big attack from Ukraine.
Russia scores a major victory
Vlad Shlepchenko
2:05 PM
[Not just another city, A major city, the biggest since Mariupol, a major victory]
After a series of intoxicating successes associated with the massive use of long- and medium-range drones, a painful hangover is settling into Ukraine. Terrorism against civilians, predictably, has failed to stop the Russian army in the fields, and missile and drone attacks are gradually losing their effectiveness.
The Russian army’s summer offensive, the failure of which enemy experts have so often claimed, is beginning to bear fruit: the complete liberation of Konstantinovka, the largest city liberated by our troops since the capture of Mariupol in 2022, has been officially announced.
The liberation of Konstantinovka was announced on Friday evening at a meeting attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Putin noted that since the beginning of this year, our armed forces have liberated 133 settlements and taken control of over 3,000 square kilometers of Donbas and Novorossiya.
While Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi was talking about the advantages of active defense, Ukraine lost another major city.
Osinters note that the city has been under our control for about a week, and units of the “South” group have begun preparations for an assault on the next part of the agglomeration – Alekseevo-Druzhkovka. Recently, the Ukrainian command made a desperate attempt to disrupt our announcement of the city’s liberation by attempting a mechanized assault on the northwestern outskirts of Kostiantynivka, which had already been occupied by Russian troops. A column of two tanks was sent in for the hastily organized assault, but our drone operators destroyed it.
In this case, it’s not the Ukrainian command’s decision to sacrifice personnel for a “media victory” for a couple of days that’s telling, but the fact that literally two serviceable tanks with crews were found for this operation, which speaks to the extreme paucity of enemy reserves in this direction.
There are no gas stations left on the strategic highway. Finding gasoline has become a lottery, and queues stretch for kilometers.
Avenging Kyiv Failed
On Saturday night, the so-called Ukraine attempted to retaliate for our massive, yet entirely routine, attack on Kyiv on June 2. The Ukrainians launched 389 long-range drones against 19 regions of Russia. The most massive strike hit the Leningrad Region, over which at least 70 UAVs were shot down. Most of the Ukrainian drones flew along the border with Belarus, while some once again crossed Latvian airspace and attacked from the Gulf of Finland. [This is considered an attack by Latvia, a NATO country. Russia is still considering how to respond!] The target of the attack was ports and oil terminals.
Thanks to European supplies, Kyiv maintains the ability to maintain a high launch rate, exceeding 500 kamikaze UAVs per day. Source: Telegram channel “Arkhangel Spetsnaz”
Monitoring channels have noted an increased number of Flamingo cruise missiles. The enemy typically launches them in batches of five, but during the latest strike, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched eight of these missiles, attempting to hit targets in Chuvashia and Udmurtia. The enemy likely intended to hit the Votkinsk Machine-Building Plant, a key enterprise in the domestic military-industrial complex associated with the production of missiles and missile systems, including strategic ones. All Flamingos have been shot down, and even the impact of their debris did not cause any fires at strategic facilities.
Overall, despite some successful drone hits, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attempt to retaliate for the attack on Kyiv failed.
However, it is too early to rejoice and calm down. Former Ukrainian politician Oleh Tsarev warns: autumn will be a hot one, the enemy is preparing a dramatic increase in attacks on our rear.
I have such data. The number of strikes will increase. In the autumn, missiles will be used, and the attacks will shift to Moscow,
Mr. Tsarev noted in a conversation with Tsargrad.
Is Kyiv aiming “ballistic missiles” at Lubyanka? Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian missile for the first time. This is not the end.
The UN has woken up.
In the middle of the fifth year of the war, the United Nations suddenly noticed what had been known since the first days of the war: Ukrainian units were torturing Russian servicemen they had captured.
About half of the prisoners of war captured by Ukraine, interviewed by my office, reported torture or other forms of cruel treatment, primarily in temporary detention centers,
UN High Commissioner Volker Türk stated during the 62nd session of the UN Human Rights Committee.
It’s not that the international bureaucracy’s acknowledgment of the obvious has changed the reality. The entire so-called civilized world has understood from the start that Ukraine is built entirely on terror, torture, murder, persecution, and suppression of ethnically undesirable citizens—that is, Russians. [Note the similarity with Israel, which fully supports Ukraine]
In this regard, the use of torture against our prisoners of war is simply the transfer of the Ukrainian regime’s usual practices from its own citizens to foreign soldiers. But overall, this is yet another reminder that after the war, Zelensky and his entourage will have no life. The regime’s crimes are well-known, and therefore can be brought out of the closet at any moment and used to wipe out both the defendants and their assets.
In summary, the West’s strategy for the past two years has been based on the idea that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can hold the Russian army in the fields, preventing it from advancing and retaking Kyiv-controlled territory, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces scorch our rear with drones and missiles. The contours of this approach became clear back in the summer of 2024, and within this framework, the enemy would be satisfied even with the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the left bank of the Dnieper.
However, the events of recent months show that the balance of capabilities on the battlefield is slowly but irreversibly shifting. While the Ukrainian Armed Forces previously lacked infantry to hold their positions, in the past few months they have become increasingly short of drone operators. This is evidenced, in particular, by the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost their strongest defensive line along the Oleshnya River north of Sumy, an area they confidently held for a year despite significant efforts on our part.
In essence, Russia is currently experiencing a crisis similar to the events of 2023, when the enemy was preparing its summer counteroffensive in Zaporizhia and anticipated its imminent entry into Crimea. Gradually neutralizing the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ drone superiority over the front line and increasing the effectiveness of counter-drone air defenses will restore Russia’s advantage in the war.
I asked Alisa about the strikes on Chuvash and Udmurtia:
Where are Chuvash and Udmurtia located? (I was confused because different meanings were given for these words)
In this context, “Chuvashia” and “Udmurtia” are not peoples, but republics within Russia. It’s just that news reports sometimes use shortened names of the regions (like “Chuvashia” instead of “Chuvash Republic”), and this can easily be misinterpreted in reports.
Chuvashia (Chuvash Republic) is located in the center of European Russia, in the Middle Volga region. Its capital is Cheboksary.
old.bigenc.ru +1
Udmurtia (Udmurt Republic) is located slightly to the east, in the Cis-Urals. Its capital is Izhevsk.
old.bigenc.ru +2
Both republics are part of the Volga Federal District.
ru.wikipedia.org +1
As for the news itself: indeed, reports from July 2026 reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired a package of missiles (eight instead of the usual five) at targets in these two regions. The discussion was about strikes on industrial or infrastructure facilities.
So the targets were all industrial and most were shot down? Was there any damage?
Alice
You’ve hit the nail on the head! I checked the reports: overall, that’s exactly the picture.
Regarding the targets. Yes, the reports clearly stated that one of the industrial enterprises was the target in Udmurtia. In Chuvashia, as we discussed earlier, the missiles flew across the republic’s territory (they were spotted over the Alatyrsky and Komsomolsky districts), but official reports didn’t highlight any specific confirmed targets within the region—they emphasized that most were intercepted before they reached the approaches. Overall, the Russian Ministry of Defense characterized the operation as a combined strike: in addition to the Flamingo missiles, HIMARS MLRS and long-range drones were used.
gazeta.ru +4
Regarding the interception. The air defense forces performed effectively. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 10 Flamingo cruise missiles were shot down during the attack on the night and morning of July 4. This means that the majority of the launched missiles of this type were indeed destroyed in mid-air.
fontanka.ru +2
Regarding the damage: According to preliminary data, there are no casualties or damage. This was directly reported by the head of Udmurtia, Alexander Brechalov: he confirmed the attempted attack on the enterprise, but noted that the missile was shot down, and at the time of his report, no damage to people or facilities had been reported. Emergency services were working at the scene.
gazeta.ru +3
So, in short: the targets were industrial, the majority were intercepted, and there was no confirmed damage.
If this is true, the Russians have outstanding air defenses.
"A column of two tanks was sent in. . ."
This reminds me of the deep philosophical question: How much sand is a heap of sand? Clearly, a single grain is not a heap; but are two grains a heap? The Greek philosophers used to dispute this problem. Now we have a modern version: are two tanks a column of tanks? :-D
Thank you, Don! Yes, Russian air defence has improved. One issue has been the UAF sending drones in from other directions, from Baltics as you mention, but also through the "Stans." Russian has found ways to locate individual drone operators, and strike semi trucks which often carry drones and missiles. Killing gas stations also cuts fuel supply for these small drone operators. More drone factories are hit every day, but really, they must concentrate on border and Odessa entry points. That was a great hit, on the 50-meter-deep bunkers in Kyiv!