Iran claims it shot down 3 low-observable (stealth) F-35s and captured a female pilot. Here’s why this claim looks reliable

I was shocked to see this reported in Sputnik Mundo. A search brought up numerous confirmations, including in Western English-language sites as well as some Russian-language sites, reproduced below.

The reason I would have trouble disbelieving it is the claim that Iran has this female pilot in custody. They would not have dared make this claim unless it’s true because once they tell us this, they know we will be looking for photos and video evidence of this person. I am therefore not going to add any caveats here.

Of course, Western reporters have an obnoxious habit of presenting information like this with all sorts of caveats and question marks, while almost never presenting claims by Western allies this way, even the most smelly ones.

For example, anything the LYING Israelis report and most reports from Kiev are reported as Gospel, and we all know Netanyahu lies as he breathes. As for Zelensky, he once claimed his men had shot down X number of Russian hypersonic missiles, which in itself is, in my opinion, impossible because hypersonic missiles travel at such high speeds that is is essentially impossible to detect them on radar at all, let alone actually intercept them – with what? No interceptor missiles can fly that fast and there are no plausible reports of such a shootdown.

So in my daily missile report, I added a footnote expressing my disbelief at this report.

Sure enough, the next morning the Russian MoD reported that the number of hypersonic missiles fired into Ukraine was actually 2 less than the number supposedly shot down.

And yet, western reporters, fearful of losing their jobs if they express disbelief at a Kiev report, regurgitate the “news” as received from Kiev.

We do everything backwards to please US politicians, who generally haven’t a clue about science and technology.

Below you will see 3 reports on the subject of this reported interception, the second of which, originally in English, presents a plausible explanation for this shootdown, which any layperson can understand.

https://inosmi.ru/20250616/istrebitelya-273407620.html

Iran shot down 3 F-35s and captured a female pilot. How reliable is this information?

Inosmi materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the editorial board of Inosmi

Two F-35 fighters were shot down during the attack on Iran, writes MWM. The extensive arsenal of Iranian air defense systems increases the likelihood that the F-35s were indeed shot down. In particular, the author of the article notes, the radar system purchased from Russia in 2019 could have played a role.

A spokesman for the Iranian Armed Forces confirmed that two Israeli fifth-generation F-35 fighters were shot down during the clashes on June 13. State media subsequently reported the capture of a female pilot who landed on Iranian soil after ejecting. While the veracity of these claims remains questionable, an examination of F-35 operations and Iranian air defense capabilities provides invaluable context for assessing their likelihood.

The F-35 is currently the only modern fighter in the Israeli Air Force. Moreover, none of the Israeli F-15s or F-16s have been upgraded to Generation 4+ standards: in particular, they all continue to use mechanically scanned radars, which are considered obsolete for high-intensity combat. In attacks on Iranian targets, Israel used not only air-launched missiles, which can be launched from F-15s and F-16s well outside Iranian airspace with little risk to the aircraft, but also gravity bombs, which are dropped from a much shorter distance. Therefore, Israeli F-35s could indeed fly deep into Iranian airspace. However, such operations are unique: all previous Israeli attacks on Iran have been carried out from outside the country's airspace [The second article below this one explains how the Israeli pilots were lured into entering Iranian airspace by a shrewd subterfuge] The F-35 has advanced stealth capabilities, and Iranian air defenses have shown significant limitations in the past. Nevertheless, the vast arsenal of Iranian air defenses, the advanced capabilities of some systems, and the sheer size of the fighter fleet increase the likelihood that the F-35s were indeed shot down. Israel's F-35 fleet numbers around 40 aircraft, and Iranian forces have some idea of ​​which targets are most likely to be attacked, including its hardened nuclear facilities. The Resonance-NE long-range radar system, purchased from Russia in 2019, can alert air defenses to low-scattering targets like the F-35 at long range. This allows fighters to be scrambled and ground systems to focus sensors on the area of ​​the approaching aircraft. Iranian fighters use largely outdated radars and weapons. However, the fact that the F-35s have very little ability to carry air-to-air weapons along with gravity bombs while maintaining stealth could make them vulnerable to interception.

Iranian official sources have made dubious claims in the past about the country's military successes and, more broadly, its military-industrial complex. But the claim that an Israeli pilot was captured (and footage of her will likely soon be used for propaganda purposes) suggests that the country’s air defenses could indeed have shot down Israeli fighters. Iranian air defenses have had notable, even astounding, successes in the past, including against stealth aircraft. Perhaps the most notable of these were the CIA’s RQ-170 stealth drone captured in 2011 and the RQ-4 Global Hawk reconnaissance drone shot down in 2019. Both were far rarer and more valuable pieces of technology than the F-35.

**

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/06/14/749845/explainer-how-iran-outsmarted-israeli-regime-shot-down-F35-fighter-jets-first-time

Explainer: How Iran outsmarted Israel and downed F-35 fighter jets for the first time

Sunday, 15 June 2025 1:07 AM [ Last Update: Sunday, 15 June 2025 2:27 AM ]

By Ivan Kesic

The Iranian armed forces have reportedly shot down at least three Israeli F-35 fighter jets, marking the first time a fifth-generation stealth aircraft has been successfully downed.

On Saturday afternoon, the Iranian Army’s Public Relations Office announced that Iranian air defenses had taken down a third Israeli F-35 stealth jet, following the destruction of two other jets the previous night.

This makes Iran the first country in the world to shoot down a fifth-generation stealth fighter, 14 years after it famously downed an American RQ-170 Sentinel reconnaissance drone.

The Israeli F-35s were intercepted by Iran’s Bavar-373, a long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system designed to counter aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

The Bavar-373 is capable of engaging targets at considerable distances, including advanced stealth fighters like the F-35 and F-22—the latter operated exclusively by the United States.

The F-35 fighters represent the most advanced aircraft in the Israeli Air Force, outclassing older, non-stealth F-15 and F-16 jets by a full generation. These jets were acquired from the United States, with the F-35 Lightning II manufactured by Lockheed Martin.

Israel’s customized variant, the F-35I, is engineered for radar evasion, enabling deep penetration missions with a reduced risk of detection or interception.

Despite its stealth capabilities, newer air defense systems developed by several countries, including Iran, have demonstrated the ability to detect and shoot down these aircraft.

By downing three enemy stealth fighters, Iranian air defenses have shattered the long-standing myth of Israeli “air superiority” cultivated over two decades.

The fact that these aircraft were destroyed within 48 hours, while their crews were captured, killed, or remain missing, demonstrates a high level of tactical sophistication in the command and control of Iranian armed forces.

Notably, Israeli aircraft operated with relative impunity on the first night, underscoring the strategic tactics employed by Iran to plan and execute the successful shootdowns later.

Falling for the bait

The Israeli F-35s were destroyed in Iranian airspace on the second day of Israeli aggression on Iran, after the regime commanders believed they had severely damaged Iranian air defenses on the first day, Friday.

While the number and usual deployment of Iranian radar batteries can be estimated from open-source and intelligence data, distinguishing real air defenses from decoys remains challenging. These decoys are intended to mislead anti-radiation missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.

During the attacks, Israeli regime forces primarily used drones equipped with electro-optical (EO) and infrared (IR) sensors to strike radar installations. However, once these drones detonate, their sensors are destroyed, leaving operators uncertain whether they eliminated real radar systems or decoys.

Reconnaissance drones and satellites offer insufficient resolution for precise damage assessment. The only reliable verification would require agents on the ground deep inside Iran—a high-risk and unlikely scenario.

Iran has long been known to employ sophisticated military decoys, including radar batteries. These decoys are far more advanced than simple wooden mock-ups; some emit false radar signals to mimic real activity and can cost upwards of $10,000 each.

On the first night of the Israeli regime’s attacks on mostly civilian areas in Tehran, Iran combined decoys with strategic deception by withdrawing many real radar batteries from service and hiding them, while exposing only mock-ups.

Israeli drones targeted these apparent radar sites, believing they had crippled Iranian defenses and gained air superiority.

This miscalculation proved costly. On subsequent attacks, Israeli fighter jets ventured deeper into Iranian airspace, unaware that functional radar systems had been reactivated. Iranian air defenses surprised the Israeli Air Force by engaging and shooting down several advanced stealth fighters.

Had Iranian forces attempted to down jets on the first night without this element of surprise, their success would have been doubtful. Additionally, any wreckage from early shootdowns would likely have fallen into neighboring Iraq, offering Iran little opportunity for technological study.

Denial and concealment

Predictably, the Israeli regime has denied it to maintain morale among its already embattled forces and protect the false reputation of its supposedly “invincible” air power.

Acknowledging losses would also strain relations with the United States, which fears advanced Israeli F-35 technology falling into the hands of Iran, or potentially Russia or China.

The US restricts F-35 sales to a select group of trusted allies, including Israel, under strict conditions (Turkey, for example, has been excluded). The F-22 Raptor, the second American stealth fighter, is not exported to any allies due to its highly sensitive technology.

Loss of these fighters would be a major blow to American military prestige, as demonstrated by the fallout from Iran’s downing of the RQ-170 Sentinel, which reportedly informed Iranian drone and subsystem development.

Despite numerous unofficial photos of wreckage circulating online, the Iranian armed forces have yet to release official images of the downed F-35s.

This restraint likely aims to conceal the extent of recovered technology and prevent adversaries from accurately assessing which advanced systems Iran and its allies may soon exploit.

**

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iran-shoots-down-third-f35-captures-second-pilot

Iran Shoots Down Third F-35 Fighter, Captures Second Pilot: What Are the Implications?

Middle East , Aircraft and Anti-Aircraft

Military Watch Magazine Editorial Staff

June-14th-2025ranian state media on June 14 reported the shootdown of a third Israeli

F-35 fifth generation fighter in the country’s airspace, following two prior reported shootdowns and the capture of a female pilot. The aircraft was reportedly also shot down by ground-based air defence systems, with the pilot surviving and being apprehended. This has brought the total number of F-35 pilots captured to two. Military Watch previously analysed the likely veracity of Iranian claims in detail, including the strengths and limitations of the country’s air defences and the risks to F-35 squadrons as a result of the means by which they have been employed. With the large majority of Israeli fighter squadrons considered effectively obsolete, relying on F-15s and F-16s using ageing mechanically scanned array radars, the F-35 is relied on heavily to spearhead attacks on Iranian targets, and is the only fighter that retains a degree of survivability for penetration missions deep into Iranian airspace. While F-15s and F-16s fire missiles into Iran from safe distances, the F-35 can overfly high priority targets such as nuclear sites to drop high diameter gravity bombs, which have a significantly greater penetrative capacity than air-launched missiles. This is particularly valuable against fortified underground targets, such as parts of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

Military Watch Magazine Editorial Staff

**

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-causes-significant-damage-to-haifa-oil-refinery--pipeli

Iran causes significant damage to Haifa oil refinery, pipelines

• ByAl Mayadeen English

• Source: Al Mayadeen English

• 15 Jun 2025 13:05

• 6 Shares

2 Min Read

An Israeli drone strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field caused limited damage, while Iranian missiles damaged pipelines at the Haifa oil refinery.

More

**

Translation from Arabic with my notes in bold and in [brackets]

https://alkhanadeq.com/post/8809/اليد-العليا-لإيران-قراءة-في-إدارة-التصعيد

Saturday, June 14, 2025, 01:03 AM

Iran's Upper Hand: An Analysis of Escalation Management

Iran's Response to the Occupying Entity [Israel]

The direct confrontation we are witnessing between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Israeli occupation entity represents a pivotal development, an unprecedented and exceptional historical event. However, what will determine the outcome of this war is how the escalation is managed and the objectives achieved. Whoever controls the pace of the battle owns its outcome and conclusion. In this escalation, the battle will be measured not only by what happened, but also by the steps taken by each side: from timing? The battlefield? To responding forcefully and intelligently?

From the Israeli side:

First, when the Israeli aggression against Iran began, the entity announced that the attack would last two weeks. However, after the Iranian response, its magnitude, and the emergence of its repercussions, it later declared that the operation might last only a week, a clear retreat from its initial impulsive tone. This reveals the confusion and gradual retreat of Israeli leaders.

Second, the enemy is trying to present a selective image in its media coverage. We find him surveying the streets where Israeli ambulances are located, seeking to say: "There are civilians here." This is because he is certain that Iran would not intentionally strike civilians.

Israeli writer Alon Mizrahi said in this context: "Iran can bomb Israel from thousands of kilometers away without killing a single child. Israel, however, cannot attack a Palestinian target from point-blank range without killing dozens of children every day." This highlights the entity's doctrine during any escalation. However, the enemy maliciously uses civilians as human shields to pressure Iran. This happened previously in the Majdal Shams incident during the support war with Lebanon, when it claimed that Hezbollah had bombed a children's playground, only to later discover that the children were hit by an Israeli interceptor missile.

Thirdly, among the pressure tools, there is a noticeable increase in media activity: the US Agency for Global Media announced the recall of Voice of America Persian staff from their vacations, in a move to intensify the media war and broadcast propaganda programs aimed at destabilizing the Iranian interior and inciting the people against the regime. Netanyahu did the same, addressing the Iranian people in his speech yesterday and clearly inciting them against their regime.

Iran is managing the escalation intelligently.

First, Tehran did not respond to the Israeli aggression immediately, but waited to understand the overall context: Was what happened a limited strike or a large-scale assault? Was it a battle or a war? What were the enemy's intentions? What were the regional and international reactions? They began by sending messages to the world and the United Nations, demonstrating that Israel had violated Iranian sovereignty and international law. Most importantly, Iran calculated the targets and losses to prepare a proportionate and qualitative response to the aggression. This, of course, came after appointing new military commanders to replace the martyred commanders and fill the void. This hesitation was not hesitation, but rather a calculated and precise calculation.

Second, the Iranian response to the enemy's threats to strike energy and infrastructure was consistent, based on the principle of "If our energy and infrastructure are struck, we will strike your infrastructure." This is evidence of escalation management and a clear statement that limited responses are no longer available, and the enemy will receive the same, or even harsher, blows.

Third, in execution, Tehran demonstrated precision in hitting its targets and missiles, and succeeded in destroying buildings in Tel Aviv. Iran is not seeking to show off or fight for image; rather, it seeks to inflict severe punishment that will cause bitterness and pain to the Israelis, as the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Sayyed Ali Khamenei, emphasized. It also seeks to exert measured pressure and leave room for subsequent stages if the enemy insists on escalation. The second stage will be different, aiming for more widespread and more painful attacks. The Iranian military spokesman stated that the next missile launch will be approximately 2,000 missiles, twenty times the initial response, in a clear message that what we have seen is only the beginning, and that Iran's ability to escalate will come at a heavy cost to the enemy. This falls within the principle of taking the necessary precautions and not presenting all of them all at once.

Fourth, Iran has created a state of real confusion and doubt among the settlers. Their questions began to emerge: "If the defenses couldn't intercept just 200 missiles, what if we bombarded the enemy with thousands of missiles?" This skepticism is not a detail, but rather part of the ongoing pressure.

Fifth, Iran rejected all calls for negotiations, considering that indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States were no longer feasible after the entity's aggression. This Iranian position reflects a deep understanding of the nature of the enemy and indicates that Tehran is not seeking an illusory calm or a truce to rescue the enemy from its predicament. If Trump truly wanted to negotiate, why did he allow the entity to carry out its aggression against Iran and grant it legitimacy? He himself stated that he was aware of the aggression in advance, perhaps believing it would pressure Iran and compel it to accept his terms. However, the opposite of what he expected happened. Iran, of course, will not negotiate while under attack.

Sixth, the precision of Iranian planning. The spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran stated: "We moved important equipment out of the Fordow nuclear plant before the attack." This behavior not only demonstrates defensive preparedness, but also confirms that Tehran anticipated the escalation and was not surprised. It took precise preemptive steps to protect its vital facilities. This demonstrates a sound assessment of the targets the enemy would strike, and thus worked to relocate them and deceive the enemy. This was the case during Operation "Qualitative Weight," in which the entity claimed to have destroyed Hezbollah's missile system during the July 2006 war. It was later shocked by the resistance's deception, as it emerged that the late commander Imad Mughniyeh had overseen a plan to move all the missiles and replace them with mock-ups at burned-out sites.

Seventh, on the popular level, Iran and its people have demonstrated remarkable cohesion. Demonstrations supporting the Islamic Republic, the official position, and the response to the aggression took place in various Iranian cities, with hundreds of thousands participating, a clear message that the Iranian interior remains united despite the ongoing aggression.

Seventh, at the popular level, Iran and its people have demonstrated remarkable cohesion. Demonstrations in support of the Islamic Republic, the official position, and the response to the aggression have taken place in various Iranian cities, with hundreds of thousands participating. This is a clear message that Iran's internal unity remains intact despite the bombardment, and that the enemy will not be able to split this unity behind the leadership.

Based on what has been announced so far, successful escalation management at this stage demonstrates who will have the upper hand in the region. The Islamic Republic is clearly adept at managing the battle. This is one of the conditions for superior escalation management and an important and influential factor in deciding the battle and its outcome.

Writer: Editorial Room

**

https://ria.ru/20250614/iran-2022877029.html

Escalation of Conflict Between Israel and Iran. Online Report

Main news by this hour

Late on Saturday evening, information emerged about a new Iranian attack on Israel. Media outlets reported that an oil refinery had been struck in Haifa.

According to the Mehr agency, Tehran had struck the city with a hypersonic missile.

The IRGC confirmed that it had begun strikes in response to repeated Israeli attacks.

According to NYP, the Israeli Weizmann Research Institute in Rehovot was damaged.

The IDF also announced strikes on targets in Tehran. Attacks were reported on oil and fuel storage facilities.

The Tasnim agency reported an attack on the headquarters of the Iranian Defense Ministry in the capital, with one of the administrative buildings damaged.

Israel claims that the Air Force struck the headquarters of the Organization for Defense Innovation and Research of Iran.

According to Tasnim, the IDF attacked a residential area in northeastern Tehran.

Trump said the US has nothing to do with Israel's actions.

Tehran has information that the United States and its bases in the Middle East supported the IDF.

The Houthis reported that over the past 24 hours they have attacked targets in the Tel Aviv area several times with Palestine-2 hypersonic missiles.

The Israeli Foreign Minister stressed that the military operation against Iran will continue.

Iran is ready to conclude an agreement guaranteeing that it will not have nuclear weapons, the country's Foreign Ministry said.

At the same time, the Iranian parliament called on Tehran to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

The IRGC confirmed the death of eight more Aerospace Forces commanders in Israeli attacks.

**

The following is an iron-clad case for a nuclear Iran.

Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets]

https://ria.ru/20250615/oruzhie-2022827209.html

08:00 15.06.2025(updated: 08:01 15.06.2025)

Without nuclear weapons, Russia and Belarus would be bombed like Iran

Alexander Nosovich

The goal of the Israeli missile attack on Iran on June 13 was regime change in Tehran. This was not hidden: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in an address to the people of Iran (not Israel), told the Iranians that the Persians and the Jews had been good neighbors since the time of Cyrus the Great, so let the Iranians overthrow their ayatollahs, and they will again have fraternal relations with Israel. [Yeah, right. Cyrus the Great was a REAL friend of ancient Israel. Iran today knows that modern Israel is exterminating its brothers in Palestine. No comparison.] This is rhetoric, but practical actions confirm Tel Aviv's real motivation. The destruction of Iran's military leadership goes far beyond the task of destroying the Iranian nuclear program. Even more so, it goes beyond the task of forcing Tehran to negotiate on this program. As Donald Trump rightly noted: how can I make a deal now if everyone I negotiated with has been killed? [These words suggest that even the dyed-in-the-wool ZIonist Trump is unhappy with Israel] But the murder of the military leadership indirectly confirms the scale of internal discord and instability in Tehran. This has been repeatedly emphasized both in Tel Aviv and in the West: Israel would not have been able to carry out such an operation without a well-developed network of agents in the enemy camp, and if the Iranians are ready to leak the coordinates of their internal opponents to the enemy special service, then the ayatollah regime has lost all support and is rotten to the core: point a finger at it (or a missile) and it will fall apart. The same stream includes calls for Elon Musk to turn on Starlink over Iran to speed up the democratic revolution, and Musk's promise to do so immediately.

Yesterday, 08:00

We'll leave it to the Iranists to discuss what the real internal situation is in Iran. What's important to us is the trend itself. The idea that one's own foreign policy objectives can be achieved by changing the regime in the target country is flying like a virus in the air of world politics. If the regime does not change on its own, it needs help with this. For starters, with information and psychological manipulation and recruiting operations within its ruling elite (the so-called color revolutions). If the result is not achieved, then with economic pressure (sanctions) it will succeed. If sanctions do not help, then with force. For some reason - despite all the reality of the last decades - decision-makers in various countries of the world still believe that political regimes collapse from external pressure. Including from pressure by force. Although the only justified way to change a regime by force is to occupy the country, as the United States did in Iraq, overthrowing Saddam Hussein. But if you declare war on a country and bomb its cities in the hope that the people will rebel and go to overthrow the government, then the effect is the opposite. This effect is called "rallying around the flag." [This approach failed miserably in 2020 after Trump’s ill-conceived murder of Gen. Soleimani. Very soon thereafter, Iran saw the most massive March in solidarity with the general and the Iranian government] people who are being bombed feel like a civil nation and unite around the leadership, no matter how they felt about that leadership before the war.

Netanyahu himself should have understood from his own example that external pressure does not destroy, but strengthens regimes. Before the Hamas attack in October 2023, the Netanyahu government was counted down: bookmakers were accepting bets on how long it would last and how long Netanyahu himself would remain free after his resignation. Today, Bibi's line in Israel is the only one and a monopoly, which is why Iran was attacked.

Governments sometimes invent external pressure for themselves in order to reverse the trend of internal disintegration. A striking example is right next to us - the European Union and the EU countries. The phantom of the "Russian threat" has become a panacea for them, allowing them to somehow contain the processes of the crisis of European integration and the collapse of the popularity of European governments. The Baltic countries would simply lose the meaning of life without "terrible Russia". In those cases when the attack is not a political technology bogeyman, but a real threat and prospect, nuclear weapons are the best guarantee against attempts to "stimulate" internal processes by external military force. Iran's troubles are due to the fact that it does not have nuclear weapons (and they bomb it so that it does not). It is useful for Russia, observing what is happening in Iran, to see itself here. In 2022, our country was also declared war - economic, and was also bombed - with sanctions. And there was the same stupid calculation: the people, embittered by deprivation, will rebel and go to overthrow Putin.

**

https://alkhanadeq.com/post/8812/كيف-تصوغ-الحرب-الاسرائيلية-الايرانية-ملامح-نظام-دولي-جديد

Saturday, June 14, 2025, 01:28 AM

How is the Israeli-Iranian war shaping the contours of a new international order?

Destruction in Israel as a result of Iranian missiles [I can only guess that these residences are on land stolen by illegal settlers, who typically enter Palestinian properties and bully the residents into abandoning their homes, then raze their homes to the ground and build over the remains. They typically chainsaw their olive groves and burn them. This is just a guess, but Iran may have bombed these homes for a reason such as this. Otherwise, Iran normally sticks to striking mostly military facilities]

On a night described in Israel as "the worst since the establishment of the entity," Israel was subjected to an unprecedented attack by Iran, including successive waves of missiles and drones that penetrated defense systems and caused material and psychological damage that has yet to be fully assessed. Apparently, this war has closed the door on the last remnants of an international order that has endured for decades. It is true that it is not over yet, but it is sufficient that it has begun.

This attack, which came in response to an Israeli aggression that targeted Iranian nuclear and military facilities and assassinated a number of scientists and officials, not only revealed a structural weakness in the occupying entity, but also a clear shift in the structure of the international order. It is a practical declaration that the Middle East has entered a new phase in which American hegemony is declining and the concepts of deterrence, superiority, and control are being re-examined. After confronting a "nuclear state, a state on the nuclear brink," as international law calls it, for the first time, militarily after decades of covert security conflict, first on their own territory, and then on the territory of several countries in the region and around the world, this shift is based on several facts affecting the top of this system, Washington, and its advanced military base in the region, Tel Aviv, which has been tasked with maintaining hegemony and helping to dismantle any rising power. Even the countries that previously orbited this system now view this "meltdown" as a burden rather than a realization of their own interests, especially those that aspire to become a regional power. All of this has been tangible over the past years, and its effects and repercussions are accumulating, even if they have not been made public in a blatant or forceful manner. However, the current war between the occupying entity and Iran, with American consent and participation, after several rounds of nuclear negotiations, and approximately 24 hours before the final round, has established a different reality in which none of the previous approaches are valid.

The United States has long presented itself as a guarantor of Israel's security and a policeman of the international order. However, recent years have revealed the fragility of this role, on multiple levels and in various arenas. While previous US administrations followed a similar approach, the presidency of President Donald Trump has exposed these contradictions more explicitly. What the region witnessed after October 7, the American and Western involvement in the quagmire of the Israeli genocide of the Palestinian people, and the subsequent events on multiple fronts, followed by the American retreat in the Red Sea and elsewhere, constituted a public exposure documented in audio, video, and tangible consequences. This unfolded in several stages:

After his involvement in the genocide and providing the entity with various forms of support, Trump failed to end the war, after months of promoting his bloody dreams of displacing the Palestinian people. He also practiced deception in Lebanon, even before arriving at the White House, by claiming his seriousness in halting the war against it.

In Ukraine, the war there revealed more: sharp, audio- and video-documented disagreements emerged between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, reaching the point where the US questioned Kyiv's ability to win the war and publicly threatened to cut or reduce support.

The same applies to allies, whom it has dealt with through the logic of "political tribute," whether by financially pressuring European NATO members to increase their defense spending or by forcing Gulf and other Asian states to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons under the pretext of protection. These practices have made the United States a selective ally, acting according to its own interests rather than its commitments, and offering no lasting guarantees to anyone.

Even on the Iranian issue, Washington played an ambiguous and contradictory role: withdrawing from the nuclear agreement, then attempting to return to it under vague conditions, without any tangible results. This caused its regional allies to lose confidence, especially since it reneged on its pledges to pursue a diplomatic path on the eve of the last round and took the extreme option of supporting a military war without justification. This practice of "deception" once again made it seem unreliable. This is especially true given that Trump had declared after the Israeli aggression that he "knew its timing."

On the other hand, Trump's support for the Israeli Prime Minister in embarking on this military adventure does not mean American approval of all the Israeli plans on the table. He also showed no serious intention to enter the war or to go too far with Netanyahu on the military path. Rather, he gave a green light to proceed, monitoring criticism, and seizing opportunities, even if it meant a ceasefire or a settlement with Iran without Israeli approval—an abandonment of the ally once again.

It's worth noting that Trump himself stated in a previous interview in 2019: "Wars in the Middle East have cost us trillions without any strategic benefit... We should be wary of entering into them again."

As for Israel, its decades-long narrative, based on the premise of the region's sole power and unassailable deterrence, has suffered a number of setbacks in just a few months, the first of which was October 7, and the most recent of which is "True Promise 3," which has yet to be concluded. Israel possesses multi-layered air defense systems and American and Arab support from neighboring countries.

The reality is that this time, Israel is not facing an organization, but a state with proven military capabilities and a will to confront. This presents Israel with a complex challenge of a new kind, represented first by the tarnishing of its reputation and marginalization, and second by the gradual shift in the assessment of events and realities by the countries of the region. Any state in the region now sees itself as a potential candidate for forging a new balance of power if it has the will and the weapons.

The mere existence of a successful Iranian example of openly challenging Israel makes the deterrent environment even more fragile. While Netanyahu presents the war as an attack aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and even at regime change, he cannot deny that it also undermines the prestige of the Israeli project itself.

What is happening today is not an isolated incident. Rather, it is part of a series of major cracks in the structure of what was once known as the "global order": the United Nations is no longer trusted or relied upon by any party, even if it is a formal necessity. Traditional alliances have been reevaluated, and Western countries are suffering from strategic confusion on multiple fronts, from the South China Sea to Ukraine to the Gulf.In this context, the Middle East has become a literal laboratory for the new phase. Iran, for its part, is proving that it has its own options, tools, and cards, and is capable of defending itself and responding as a sovereign state, without the help of any mediator or allies. For its part, other countries, even those within Israel's orbit through peace or security agreements, now realize that excessive closeness to the Washington-Tel Aviv axis is no longer a guarantee. The Iranian attack and the steadfastness of the people and state simultaneously send a series of messages: There is no room for neutrality in a war of hegemony. We must reconsider the nature of our alignments and the consequences of openly siding with an equation that has not proven effective.

Are we witnessing a new Middle East? Yes, but not as former US President George W. Bush or Barack Obama predicted. The new Middle East is not a soft, American-revised democracy. Rather, it is an environment of intense conflict, with multiple centers of power, and the balance of power is shaped in a circular, not a hierarchical, fashion. It is a round table with room for multiple players, not a rectangular one with a single dominant seat, as it has been for decades.

What comes after this war will not be the same as what came before it. Israel, which has long been the exception in security and control, has become a regional power that calculates its responses. The United States is no longer a reference or a guarantor, but rather a party whose intentions and ability to fulfill its commitments are questionable. [The same infamous Trumpian "uncertainty" that has undermined financial markets is also present in our foreign policy, where it has caused similar problems. No one knows what our regime is doing or what its plans – if any – are. Like trying to build a house without an architect but with multiple uncoordinated planners. Let me also say that, as evidenced by the latest strikes on Israel, we must remember that Iran has over the years reminded the US that, should it cross Iran’s red lines — as it already has, the US bases in the region may well be next. If this happens, it is hard to imagine Trump landing on his feet] The international system is witnessing a radical shift toward non-polarity, where no one guarantees anything, and no one is completely dominant.

Author:

Maryam Al-Sablani

- Writer at Al-Khanadaq website- Master's degree in Political Science.

**

Air strike update with my notes in bold and in [brackets]

https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2025/06/15/26035802.shtml

June 15, 2025, 05:13

Military Correspondents Report Combined Strike on Ukraine

"RV": Russian Armed Forces Launched Combined Strike on Ukraine with Hypersonic Missiles

Andrey Khromov

On the night of June 15, the Russian Armed Forces launched a combined strike on Ukraine using hypersonic missiles and drones. This was reported by the Telegram channel Voyenkory russkoi vesny “Military Correspondents of the Russian Spring" ("RV").

It is specified that the combined strike is carried out with hypersonic missiles "Kinzhal", "Kalibr" and "Geran" drones.

According to "RV", at the time of the attack, an air raid alert was declared throughout Ukraine.

On June 14, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the Russian Armed Forces launched strikes on temporary deployment points of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian troops and foreign mercenaries in 148 combat areas during the day. According to the Ministry, the operations involved crews of strike drones and operational-tactical aviation. Missile troops and artillery were also involved in the tasks.

The Russian Ministry of Defense also reported that a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber destroyed a control center for Ukrainian drones in the area of ​​responsibility of the South group of forces. The aircraft crew used aerial bombs with a universal planning and correction module while performing a combat mission.

Earlier, footage of a missile strike on the Motor aircraft plant in the Ukrainian city of Lutsk appeared online.