Possible scenarios for post-war Western Ukraine
Yesterday’s issue of my substack left you hanging regarding what Russia could do with the Ukrainian “rump state” that Russian media are dangling before Poland and the rest of NATO.
The giant map hanging on the wall behind Dmitry Medvedev during his lecture at the World Youth Festival in Sirius showed many oblasts in West Ukraine in colors matching those of the surrounding countries, notably Poland and Hungary, suggesting that these territories would possibly revert back to countries that once were home to these oblasts.
Let’s have another look at that map:
Just to the left of Kiev we find a vast sea of blue matching the color of Poland, with about 6 oblasts that once were part of Poland and apparently, Russia would be willing to cede them back to Poland. In fact, the word “Poland” actually extends tantalizingly into Ukraine itself.
So can Poland expect to suddenly fall heir to these territories?
The thing is, at the outset of the Special Military Operation, Putin had said that this operation had 3 goals: 1—defending Donbass against Kiev’s genocidal attacks, 2—denazifying Ukraine (He also vaguely hinted that he might also have to denazify other territories at Russia’s borders), and 3—demilitarizing Ukraine. But didn’t he also say something about demilitarizing other territories as well?
You see he left a lot of things open to speculation, deliberately so.
Now, I wonder if it has occurred to you how Russia could denazify and demilitarize Ukraine if it returned a rump portion to NATO after defeating only the southeast.
I think the answer is simple. He absolutely could not achieve his goal if he left any part of Ukraine completely unoccupied at first. Post-war, Russian tanks must roll into Western Ukraine as well at first.
And what is more important to Russia – defeating the southeast and then cutting the West loose or occupying all of Ukraine until every last corner of it is safely demilitarized and denazified?
I think it is safe to assume that Russia would never relinquish its hold on any territory wrested away from NATO with the shed blood of Russian soldiers.
So why do we so often read Russian authors and politicians like Medvedev suggesting that Russia might just cut rump Ukraine loose and hand it over to states like Poland that once controlled parts of it?
I think they’re teasing, trying to arouse interest in Eastern Europe in playing ball with Russia.
It won’t be that simple to cut the West off.
A few scenarios come to mind.
For example, Russia might well occupy Western Ukraine with troops and make it clear to NATO that they need to stay away until this region is stabilized.
During this time, Russia could make small overtures to states like Poland and Hungary, or even Romania and Moldova, until they showed interest in eventually administering the region under certain favorable terms.
It would be characteristic of Putin to let them make the first offer.
What could the offer be?
They might offer denazification and demilitarization, knowing these are of paramount importance to Russia.
Russia could then show mild interest in this, tantalizing them into offering specific moves such as not allowing any military equipment or NATO countries’ soldiers into the territory.
They might offer to allow Russian peace keepers to stay in the area indefinitely.
Russia would at some point come to an agreement with them that would then be enshrined in a treaty.
There would be the usual carrot and stick.
Russia could offer a delicious carrot of pipeline gas to Poland and/or Hungary and could dangle before them the prospect of becoming the new Germany, an industrial giant supplied with cheap pipelined gas. This is not just a pipe dream. It is a distinct possibility!
Assuming the rest of NATO remains obstinately Russophobic and continues to turn up its cute nose at all Russian energy products, this would potentially make eastern Europe, including Western Ukraine, the richest region of Europe. Eventually, Poland and Hungary (or even Romania) might break away from the EU and NATO, preferring to ally with Russia.
There are already several existing Russian gas pipelines in Ukraine, which still obtains gas from Russia (remember Hunter Biden and Burisma?). These could be connected to or opened to Poland and Hungary and/or Romania. The rest of Europe could remain cut off as long as it remains Russophobic. (You can read here about the natural gas transmission system from Russia to eastern Europe. And BTW, the post-war Ukraine would have the same gas incentives to cooperate with Russia. Ukraine could become quite prosperous under Russian guidance).
Of course, this would have a salutary effect on Western Europe as well, where new political parties on the left (like the Sarah Wagenknecht party in Germany) and right (like Germany’s AfD) are interested in a mutually beneficial rapprochement with Russia. Keep in mind that the US policy, as exemplified by Joe Biden, is aimed at impoverishing Europe for the benefit of the US, and this explains why Biden sabotaged Nord Stream I and II, causing a drastic reduction in Germany’s economy that is fast leading to de-industrialization of that country. The new parties are pursuing policies that put their own countries first).
In a partnership with Russia, Western Ukraine could be administered by Poland and Hungary, each of which could introduce its own language as the official language of the state. EU rules and law would have to be forbidden, of course. Otherwise, it’s a no-go for Russia.
Of course, if one or both countries decided to revert back to the Russophobic West, Russia could use its “oil power” to rein it in.
The US-controlled West would, of course, go nuts and try all the usual tricks to turn these countries against Russia, including the usual regime change methods via NGOs and terrorism.
The situation might be similar to that in Hong Kong when it was only loosely controlled by Beijing. But Beijing tightened up with legislation that prohibited the Western-backed terrorists and regime change nuisances from meeting publicly and causing trouble.
We can imagine a “Hong-Kongization” of Western Ukraine.
I welcome further ideas from readers.
This is a tremendously exiting topic and the results will greatly affect the multipolar order agenda.
**
Here’s your daily air strike update for April 24, 2024
Hundreds of drones and their production workshop were destroyed in the Northern Military District zone
The military destroyed 299 drones, a fuel depot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a drone production workshop in one day
04/24/2024
© RIA Novosti. Sergey Malgavko
SIMFEROPOL, April 24 – RIA Novosti Crimea. The Russian military destroyed over 300 Ukrainian drones, a dozen and a half rockets and guided bombs, including Western ones. This was reported to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
“Over the past 24 hours, air defense systems shot down 299 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, nine US-made Himars and Alder MLRS missiles, as well as six French-made Hammer guided bombs,” the statement said.
In addition, the operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groupings destroyed the P-18 all-round radar station. The workshop for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fuel storage facility, and manpower and military equipment in 117 districts were also hit.
Earlier, the defense department reported the suppression of the activities of six Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Kharkov region, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.
In addition, it was reported that in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnytsky region, the Russian Air Force destroyed a warehouse with British Storm Shadow missiles. Over the past 24 hours, formations of the Dnepr group of troops in the Kherson region destroyed three enemy boats, the location of an enemy unit, a mortar crew and a self-propelled gun. Enemy losses in manpower amounted to 20 killed and 14 wounded.
**
https://ok.ru/yesttaka/topic/158002698893489
THE RF AF LAUNCHED A MISSILE STRIKE AND HIT THE UKRAINIAN AF
On April 24, 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued a special operation in Ukraine to protect Donbass, as well as the demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. On April 24, 2024, the Armed Forces and the Russian Aerospace Forces launched a missile attack on the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Over the course of 24 hours, Russian troops launched missiles, glide bombs and kamikaze drone strikes against targets in Kharkov, Poltava, Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk.
On the night of April 24, 2024, the Russian Armed Forces hit enemy targets in Odessa and Ochakov, Nikolaev oblast, explosions were heard in the Kiev and Cherkasy oblasts, as well as in Krivoy Rog. During the day, there was intensive destruction of targets in the Kharkov oblast.
The Russian armed forces attacked the location of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Sumy oblast. In the city of Belopole, the arrival of seven Smerch MLRS missiles was recorded with a successful detonation at the location of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
A missile strike was launched in Kremenchug, Poltava oblast of Ukraine, on an airfield and the territory of an oil refinery.
The Russian Armed Forces (RF Armed Forces) struck a Ukrainian military unit in Odessa, which is located near the Gorbaty Bridge. All three missiles in Odessa hit their intended targets. A line of ambulances is located in the area of the Gorbaty Bridge. The air defense launch system guarding the only bridge connecting the seaport with Odessa was destroyed. There the authorities repaired equipment and air defense and electronic warfare systems. The hangars and repair area with everything inside, as well as the local fuel and lubricants warehouse, were destroyed.
Part of Odessa was left without electricity. Power outages occurred after powerful explosions in the city of Odessa. Repair shops and a fuel depot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city of Odessa were attacked.
The Russian Armed Forces launched a strike with two S-300 missiles at a dormitory in Kharkov in Oktara Yarosha Lane and at a dormitory in the village of Borovaya, Kharkov oblast, just over 20 km away from Izyum, where Ukrainian military personnel were located. Up to 30 foreign military mercenaries were destroyed, including citizens of the USA, Georgia, Poland, the Baltic republics and six pieces of equipment. [Putin had warned that, if NATO troops entered Ukraine, they would be killed]
On the night of April 24, the Russian armed forces launched a series of attacks on enemy targets in Kharkov and the Kharkov oblast. The Russian Aerospace Forces shut off Kharkov’s power. Kharkov can no longer generate electricity on its own due to the destruction of all transformer substations and thermal power plants. Kharkov no longer has its own generation; energy supply comes from other oblasts. On March 22, at least 15 explosions occurred in Kharkov, all critical infrastructure was damaged, and the city was completely without power.
The Russian Aerospace Forces accurately hit targets on the territory of the Kharkov Tank Plant [this plant gets hit quite often] with missiles, and there were secondary detonations. The television tower in Kharkov, which our army dropped yesterday, in addition to television broadcasting, was used for long-range optical and electronic reconnaissance, as well as air defense coordination. That is, this area is now very limited in the “eyes and ears” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Russian troops launched missile attacks on targets of the Kiev regime and in the Nikolaev oblast. Explosions also occurred in the regional center.
Late in the evening of April 23 and on the night of April 24, attacks were carried out on targets in Dnepropetrovsk and the oblast. Russian missiles and drones have targeted Ukrainian reserves, which are urgently trying to be transferred to the Donbass to contain the advance of Russian troops.
Critical infrastructure facilities were damaged in the Kiev-controlled part of the Kherson oblast as a result of missile strikes by the Aerospace Forces. A series of strikes were carried out against enemy manpower points on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson oblast.
Over 100 thousand soldiers deserted from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukraine has increased the number of border guards in case of mass attempts by citizens to escape the country from mobilization.
**
Ron Paul
https://www.unz.com/rpaul/final-nail-in-americas-coffin/
**
China de-dollarization
The US is eyeing sanctions that could cut off some Chinese banks from the rest of the world
Looks a lot like WW III to me!
**
23 APR
Ukrainian forces refuse to obey Commander-in-Chief Syrsky — CIA ex-analyst
https://tass.com/world/1779445
Previously, Ukrainian armed forces joint commander Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol admitted that Ukrainian forces have approximately 7-10 times less troops than the Russian forces. According to the commander, the Ukrainian army is on its last legs.
Biden thinks the US president is an orchestra leader
Biden – and all other US presidents – somehow latched onto the weird notion that the entire world must sing off the same sheet music as the US. Not being aligned with the US somehow makes other countries off-key or off-rhythm.
I wonder if you have also noticed something. The US Constitution doesn’t say a word about the “world leadership” of the US president. World leadership is NOT one of his or her duties. But who needs a Constitution? It’s so old-fashioned to let those old dead white men tell us how to run the US, right?
However, the neglect of the Constitution amounts to the neglect of Americans and their needs while funneling American taxpayer resources into a sick attempt to make all the rest of the world sing and dance to the strains of the Star-Spangled Banner.
As a result of this unlawful governance, we are getting poorer and poorer, but that is in line with the WEF’s Malthusian lunacy – its push to make the world population smaller. You can’t tolerate overall prosperity or fuel use, or defend the southern border, and you need to cull the population with wars if Malthusian population control is your goal.
Trump may not be as focused on forcing a square peg into a round hole as Biden has been. Although, on the other hand, he may be lots worse. He’s already complained that US Jews aren’t Jewish enough and don’t “love Israel” because they tend to vote Democrat and feel sorry for starving Palestinian children, and Democrats are Arab lovers. We’re all supposed to hate the Middle East majority and love the genocidal minority. Thus, in Trump’s world, REAL Americans support the idea of killing off the rest of the Palestinians and transforming Iran into a sheet of radioactive glass.
Can sanity ever be restored to the US and hence the world?
Thank God for Russia, China and the Global South for standing up to the Unipolar World order.
They are the real world leaders who want peace and prosperity for all, not just a few billionaires.
Who would lead if US stepped off world stage, asks President Biden
Biden told his supporters that his campaign is doing great and has raised nearly half a billion dollars so far.
**
Translation from Arabic with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
24 April 2024
Shraga Barracks: A large and important target for combined resistance attacks!!
Shraga Barracks
On April 23, 2024, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon carried out a specific operation with important implications in the context of the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle, when it targeted, with a combined air attack, the Sharaga Barracks, which is located between the cities of Nahariya and Akka in northern occupied Palestine.
This process was considered by some experts in military affairs to be a model taught in creating military deterrence equations without sliding into open war. Pointing out that the Nahariya-Acre-Haifa line is the entity's red line, which Hezbollah violated in a shocking manner. This is what prompted some Israeli media outlets to sarcastically say that Hezbollah is now targeting targets 30 km from the Lebanese border with Palestine.
In the details of the operation, the combined air attack consisted of decoy drones (that is, their goal was to tie up the air defense system) and attack drones that targeted the Sharaga barracks, and were able to hit their targets accurately, which was documented in the videos of one of the people who was sailing his boat in a place opposite the barracks.
What is the most important information about the Shraga Barracks, and how important is it to the occupying entity?
_ 32.96313089230866, 35.09105397438024
_ The barracks is 14.34 km away from the Palestinian-Lebanese border (therefore it is very likely that during any large or large war this barracks will be vulnerable to a combined attack from several land and sea type arms in addition to air attacks), and it is located near the “Ghetto Fighters” kibbutz in the north of the city of Akko, and exceeds Its area is 244 thousand square meters.
_It includes:
1) Golani Brigade Administrative Command Headquarters: It includes all of the brigade’s military, medical, communications, technology and maintenance, logistics units, and the AGM officer responsible for operations.
2) Golani Patrol Command Headquarters (formerly known as the 631st Brigade Reconnaissance Battalion): It is the unit - the special battalion affiliated with the brigade, specialized in carrying out raiding, reconnaissance, and sabotage missions, fighting in built-up areas, fighting in the jungle, fighting in tunnels, and confronting resistance movements. It is composed of 4 companies and an auxiliary company. The patrol possesses advanced technological and combat means, in addition to its specialization in operating anti-armor missiles.
3) Headquarters of the Special Commando Battalion “Egoz” 621: Currently part of the Oz Brigade of commando units, this unit specializes in complex ground operations, and was originally intended to fight tactics similar to those used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
4) Golani Brigade emergency stores and shooting ranges.
5) Special communications systems, and a command and control system.
6) Iron dome system.
An Israeli website revealed that there is a camp within this barracks that is “top secret” and no one is allowed to divulge what is inside it.
_ The barracks was named after Captain Shraga Mostwilishkar-Geshri, who fell in June 1948 in a battle against the Iraqi army in the Jordan Valley. Shraga was a member of the Palmach gang, a member of the “Defense Committee” for the Haifa District, and deputy battalion commander in the Carmeli Brigade. He was buried in the military cemetery on a mountain called “Herzl” in occupied Jerusalem.
_ Because of its great importance to the occupation army, Google satellite services block any clear images of the base, so its image from the air is not clear at all.
Writer:
Ali Nour El-Din
**
Our thanks to Jane Stillwater for this:
Press Trust of India Washington
Apr 24 2024
If the United States stepped off the world stage, who would lead the world, US President Joe Biden asked his fellow countrymen as he slammed his November challenger for making such an argument.
"Think of it this way -- if the United States stepped off the world stage, like Trump wants us to do, who would lead the world? Who would lead the world?" Biden asked the gathering at a campaign event in Tampa, Florida.
"You may choose to look the other way but...
By Jane Stillwater https://jpstillwater.blogspot.com/2024/04/you-may-choose-to-look-other-way-but.html
...you can never say again that you didn't know."
William Wilberforce said this back in the day regarding the slave trade, when people could see slaves being mistreated all around them -- and you can also say the same thing today as we watch women and children in Gaza being butchered right before our very eyes on FaceBook and Instagram.
We watch these horrors daily on social media, as thousands of our fellow human beings are being slaughtered by Zionists, the Jeffry Dahmers of West Asia.
Resources:
This article is sooo hopeful that Americans are finally waking up to the dangers of being fed constant propaganda and lies. And yet. We are still getting Trump and Biden shoved down our throats. And it wasn't the lock-downs alone. It is also inflation, the Federal Reserve's ponzi schemes, censorship and endless war on anyone who doesn't mindlessly support the military-industrial-complex superstars: Did Lockdowns Set a Global Revolt in Motion? ⋆ Brownstone Institute
America Angry As Russia Leaks Classified Files About Gaddafi’s M*urder
Tulsi Gabbard talks about corruption in DC: Tulsi Gabbard on Being Trump’s VP, Who’s Puppeteering Biden, and Corruption in Congress
Wow. Here's an incredible (and accurate) military analysis of what really happened during the Iran missile strike. https://freepalestinemovement.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Sharmine-Narwani-240422.mp4
******************
Stop Wall Street, War Street, Big Pharma and Big Tech from destroying our world. And while you're at it, please buy my books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Jane-Stillwater/author/B00IW6O1RM?ref=ap_rdr&store_ref=ap_rdr&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true
Please support my channel: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/janestillwater
**
Russia should go ahead and do what is good for it. The genociders, usa, uk, french, germans, (in recent times the eu as well) have done (and corrupted) whatever they wanted over the past few centuries. They do not need any 'permission' from these scums.
By Stephen Lendman
October 01, 2012 "Information Clearing House" - America betrayed them and all Native Peoples. Throughout US history and earlier, genocide was policy.
Historian Ward Churchill explained four centuries of systematic slaughter. It went on from 1492 - 1892. It continues today against Native culture.
Churchill estimated around 100 million Native People throughout the Americas "hacked apart with axes and swords, burned alive and trampled under horses, hunted as game and fed to dogs, shot, beaten, stabbed, scalped for bounty, hanged on meathooks and thrown over the sides of ships at sea, worked to death as slave laborers, intentionally starved and frozen to death during a multitude of forced marches and internments, and, in an unknown number of instances, deliberately infected with epidemic diseases."
Destruction of their culture continues in new forms. "The American holocaust was and remains unparalleled, in terms of its scope, ferocity, and continuance over time."
Silence and denial suppress what happened and goes on today. Try finding coverage anywhere by America's major media. Virtually nothing is said, let alone explained.
Survivors represent a tiny fraction of original numbers. They also symbolize a longstanding US tradition of butchery and viciousness.
After centuries of systematic slaughter, Census Bureau data estimated around a quarter-million US survivors. Those living struggle to get by.
Raphael Lemkin defined genocide as:
"the destruction of a nation or of an ethnic group" that corresponds to other terms like "tyrannicide, homicide, infanticide, etc." (It) does not necessarily mean the destruction of a nation, except when accomplished by mass killings....It is intended....to signify a coordinated plan (to destroy) the essential foundations of the life of national groups" with the intent to eradicate or substantially weaken or harm them."
"Genocidal plans involve the disintegration....of political and social institutions, culture, language, national feelings, religion, economic existence, personal security, liberty, health, dignity, and" human lives.
The 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide Convention defines it legally as:
"any (acts like those above) committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, the national, ethnical, racial or religious group (by) killing (its) members; causing (them) serious bodily or mental harm; (or) deliberately inflicting (on them) conditions" that may destroy them in whole or in part.
Destroying peoples' cultures, preventing them from practicing their religion, speaking their language, and/or passing on their traditions to new generations are genocidal acts.
Constitutional provisions don't let government abuse people or deny them their rights. They don't authorize genocide, either within or outside the country. They don't permit theft and occupation of their lands or any others.
Nonetheless, binding principles are spurned. America, Israel, and rogue NATO partners violate them with impunity. Crimes of war, against humanity, and genocide are official policy. Millions of corpses bear testimony.