Changes in Russian military strategy that will soon prove fatal to Ukraine.
All 7 ports in Ukraine are blockaded by Russia. That means the country will soon be strangled economically and, along with the increasing manpower shortage, will inevitably lead to the impossibility to continue the war.
It is amusing to watch how the Western liars hide this message in the press. They point to isolated incidents in Russia, like the missile attacks on oil refineries and distribution centers and assassinations, incidents that certainly hurt Russia, no doubt about it. But that are not fatal to its economy.
On the other hand, blockading the ports, blowing up all the bridges on the Dnipro, striking the locomotives and cutting off the trade routes is a whole different thing. And it can prove fatal.
Today I caught an interview with Ben Meiselas and ex ambassador Michael McFaul. Everything was going great until they started talking about how Trump surrendered Ukraine to the “dictator” Putin and they both agreed on that point.
I suddenly was jarred awake and realized that, with the coming elections, we are going to face barrages of false propaganda against Putin in the war on ‘poor’ Zelensky, the corrupt Nazi who press-gangs septegenarians into the fatal conflict with Russia.
We are to hate Trump for the wrong reasons. For example, because he is ‘Putin’s friend’ and is ‘selling us out’ in Ukraine.
But look, we need the multipolar 3, Russia, China and Iran. These people are indispensable in our war on the Empire.
I am not ready for something that I feel is coming.
We need you if you are willing to go up against the Israel lobby and stand up for the Palestinians and all the rest of the downtrodden victims of the IDF. But if you are against Putin because he is fighting ‘poor’ Zelensky, that is a different matter.
We need to talk.
Translation from Russian with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
Ekaterina Panfilova
September 12, 2026, 06:00
A new phase of Operation “Kyiv.” Ukrainians receive bad news from Odesa—a “November-December deadline.”
Individual events are beginning to form a larger picture, lifting the veil on the autumn campaign. As it turns out, the most difficult part lies ahead. Everything points to a new phase of Operation “Kyiv.” Read the details in this *Tsargrad* report.
A new “Kyiv regime”
Analysts from *Voennaya Khronika* (Military Chronicle) have noted an unusual detail: since August 27, the nature of the strikes on Kyiv has changed noticeably.
Previously, the main attacks have occurred at night. Now, that established pattern has been disrupted: air raid sirens sound both day and night. In early September, Western media began describing the situation using the term “round-the-clock”—indicating continuous, 24-hour pressure.
Looking at the campaign of the so-called Operation “Kyiv” as a whole, significant changes have been underway since May 25. That was when Russia publicly announced a shift toward systematic strikes on Ukrainian military facilities and decision-making centers.
However, we can now speak not only of a shift to a “round-the-clock” strike mode but also of the Ministry of Defense expanding its target list.
For instance, today we saw the first strike by a Russian drone on a gas station in Kyiv. The UAV hit a station near the “Respublika Park” shopping mall, which is still operational. While the resulting fire was quickly extinguished, the station will be out of commission for a long time. A familiar pattern, isn’t it? Ukrainian drones regularly target our oil refineries and gas stations; we all know where that has led.
True, a single damaged gas station doesn’t change the big picture. It is a different matter entirely if such incidents become a recurring pattern.
A modern metropolis relies heavily on fuel. It is essential for trucks, generators, municipal utility vehicles, support services, and a vast number of civilian vehicles. Given the electricity problems Ukraine has faced for several years—stemming from the effective destruction of its energy grid—this reliance on fuel has become critical.
This creates a potential vicious cycle: electricity requires generators, generators require fuel, and transporting that fuel requires functional logistics, crossings, and—once again—fuel.
Analysts have immediately recalled the term “functional de-urbanization”—a phenomenon that could become part of the unfolding autumn campaign. While the term sounds complex, the principle is simple: a city may remain physically intact, yet the mechanisms that keep it functioning begin to fail.
And this is precisely where a far more alarming scenario for Kyiv emerges.
“That would be the end of it”
Denys Yaroslavskyi, an officer in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has publicly discussed a scenario he considers virtually catastrophic for the country.
According to him, Russia might shift to systematically targeting the bridges across the Dnieper:
“The Russians will start destroying our bridges across the Dnieper, and that would be the end of it.”
It is worth noting that these crossings connect transport flows between the riverbanks; they carry road and rail routes, supply lines, and a significant portion of internal logistics.
“The bridges across the Dnieper will be taken out.”
Yaroslavskyi fears that, alongside attacks on bridges, Russia will continue to pressure energy infrastructure and logistics hubs. In such a scenario, he believes, the consequences would snowball rapidly:
“While Russia previously targeted the energy sector, it will now strike Ukraine’s water utility infrastructure, leaving us without water. Just look up ‘Wikipedia’ and see what separates the Left Bank from the Right Bank across the Dnieper in Ukraine. Do you know how many bridges there are?” Somewhere around 12. And if they cut off those 12 bridges—and that is indeed their plan—the country would effectively be split in two; would we have to rely on pontoon crossings or something? You realize that if even three or four bridges in Kyiv were hit, it would trigger total chaos...
The countdown has begun in Odesa.
But the collapse Yaroslavsky speaks of could be triggered by more than just strikes on the Dnieper bridges. Serhiy Vovk, director of the Ukrainian Center for Transport Strategies, has shared equally alarming news with the public: Russian strikes on Odesa’s ports threaten a catastrophe.
Ukraine has no viable alternative to its Black Seaports [All 7 of which are under a blockade, with nothing coming in or leaving]. While some imports can be rerouted, the situation regarding exports is far more complex. According to Vovk, European railways, the Danube, and routes through Romania lack the capacity to handle the cargo volumes the Ukrainian economy requires.
And that is where simple arithmetic comes into play.
Less export means less foreign currency revenue. Less revenue means enterprises cut back on production. Reduced production means even fewer resources for the next cycle:
Our deadline is sometime in November or December. If solutions aren’t found by then, next year’s sowing season will be at risk, and—unfortunately—the situation in the industrial sector will also become extremely difficult. [That’s bad news for Europe, which cannot receive the grain, and for Ukraine, which cannot sell it. Just as the Hormuz crisis kicks in.]
It turns out, then, that the current strikes could critically weaken Ukraine well into next year.
**Threats against Russia in the summer; calls for compromise now**
Against this backdrop, war correspondent Alexander Kots points to a shift in the tone of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statements.
Back in the summer, Kyiv was issuing harsh statements about a pressure campaign against Russia. Now, Zelenskyy speaks of a willingness to seek compromise regarding strikes on energy infrastructure and grain exports.
Kots views this shift as a logical development.
In his assessment, the pressure Russia has exerted on maritime trade, energy, industry, and logistics has placed Kyiv in a position where maintaining its previous confrontational stance is becoming increasingly costly.
At the same time, the war correspondent sees no reason for Moscow to immediately agree to any concessions. A compromise, he argues, makes sense only given a certain balance of capabilities between the parties—a balance that does not currently exist. Moreover, it is Ukraine that finds itself at a disadvantage. Winter is approaching, and in freezing temperatures, the importance of electricity, fuel, and utility infrastructure increases several fold. Consequently, what appears to be a localized disruption in September could evolve into a far more serious problem within a few months.
**The response must come on all fronts**
Beyond the fact that Russia has finally begun striking the right targets, military experts believe it should not stop there. One must not forget that whenever the Kyiv regime “goes quiet” in one area, an endless series of terrorist attacks and assassination attempts follows.
Against this backdrop, military surgeon Yuri Yevich issued a stern statement. He called for a stepped-up response to assassination attempts and killings targeting Russian military personnel, politicians, and defense industry specialists. According to Yevich, “ruthless, extremely severe action is required against all structures involved in these assassination attempts.”
“Put bluntly: if an officer is killed, launch a dozen missiles at SBU, GUR, and government facilities. And missiles must also be fired at Britain and America—at those who plan and organize these terrorist attacks,” he believes. [I hear talk of attacking Europe and America, but so far this is just talk. Would they be justified in launching such an attack? As long as NATO weapons are used to strike deep in the Russian rear, yes. But I think as long as Putin is in charge, it won’t happen. But I could be wrong]
“For every Russian officer killed—dozens of missiles fired at the SBU, GUR, and Britain.”
In the military surgeon’s view, if Kyiv were forced to bury at least twenty of its own officers and spend a week repairing destroyed offices after every such assassination attempt, the thought would sooner or later cross their minds: “Maybe we shouldn’t carry out these attacks anymore?”
If this is not done, the situation will only deteriorate further.
The Bottom Line
The main takeaway from recent events is the importance of consistency. Each element is linked to the next; if pressure is indeed applied according to this principle, the issue becomes less about individual targets and more about the entire system’s ability to absorb the resulting losses.
Kyiv has already become part of the front line.
Everything points to the start of a new phase in the operation involving Kyiv—one where the cumulative effect matters more than any single strike.
**
I didn’t mean to interrupt my account of each country from the Canary article A breakdown of our far right Trumpian takeover of Latin America. I am including Ecuador, Honduras and Colombia in today’s edition.
Ecuador — Extreme wealth and an intensifying drug war
President: Daniel Noboa. Born in Miami. Son of Ecuador’s richest person. The extreme wealth of his family – one of Latin America’s richest – comes from real estate, mining, and the banana trade. The family banana company allegedly colluded with drug traffickers in the past.
Past: At the start of the 21st century, left-leaning president Rafael Correa successfully reduced poverty and inequality, saw off regular US interference, and gave Julain Assange asylum. But Correa’s successor betrayed this project, setting Ecuador on a neoliberal path that it has remained on ever since.
Noboa’s policies: Noboa hasn’t just continued the destructive neoliberal policies of his predecessors (which have increased inequality, poverty, and militarisation). He has also been rehashing drug war failures of the past to position himself as a strongman in times of increasing violence, while putting civil rights at risk.
There are already significant humanitarian concerns about a lack of accountability for military abuses during Noboa’s drug war.
Ecuador’s prime location between key drug-producing nations Colombia and Peru means it would be difficult to free the country from drug crime without dealing with the massive demand from Global North countries like the US. But Noboa is focusing on building joint military efforts with the US, Peru and Colombia.
Controversies: From early on, Noboa made numerous controversial attempts to disempower his vice president (also a proud right-winger). There were also allegations of fraud during his 2025 re-election campaign. Amid violent crackdowns of protests, rising living costs also affected Noboa’s popularity.
Honduras — dodgy dealings between high-profile drug convict, Trump, and Israel
President: Nasry ‘Tito’ Asfura. Blatant US interference (including a Trump endorsement and threat) and dodgy efforts behind the scenes helped to secure Asfura’s controversial election win in Honduras in 2025. The proud Christian Zionist quickly boosted relations with Israel, whose name appeared in the Hondurasgate revelations.
Controversy: The Hondurasgate files revealed a secret coordination of efforts to undermine democracies both in Honduras and across Latin America. The Trump regime had been conniving with Israel, convicted drug trafficker and far-right ex-president of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández, and Argentina’s far-right president Javier Milei.
Asfura’s policies: In government, Asfura has sought to deepen the power of private corporations while weakening state regulations. And he has faced accusations of repressing opponents in service of international and national elites. The state, for example, has labelled activists terrorists to justify violence against them.
Past: Honduras was a key military hub for US destabilisation in Central America in the Cold War. Brutal pro-US regimes led it to have one of the world’s highest murder rates and serious drug cartel problems, leading many ordinary people to flee the country. The US backed a coup in 2009 to avoid losing influence in Honduran politics.
Sharing a long border with Nicaragua, Honduras played a key role in the brutal US ‘Contra‘ war against its neighbour in the 1980s. Nicaragua had dared to overthrow an oppressive US-backed dictatorship, and the US violated international law trying to punish it. Ordinary Hondurans also suffered from the increasing militarisation.
Drug trafficking became an important tool for the Contra mercenaries in their fight against the Nicaraguan left.
Colombia — Trump wannabe wastes no time following razor-thin election win
President: Abelardo de la Espriella. Although predecessor Gustavo Petro made traditional US ally Colombia a prominent critic of the Gaza genocide, millionaire and far-right Israel fanboy de la Espriella quickly sought to change that after his extremely narrow election victory.
De la Espriella lived in Miami before the election campaign and worked for years as a lawyer to high-profile criminals. As president, he has pushed for and committed to “joint military operations to destroy terrorists”, with $1bn of US ‘security assistance’.
Controversy: Private firms have long operated Colombia’s elections. And dominant tax-haven-based logistics company Thomas Greg & Sons may have links with de la Espriella. The company’s owners have faced numerous fraud convictions, and played a role in Honduras’s highly controversial 2025 election.
De la Espriella’s policies: Amid an earthquake disaster following his inauguration, he declared an “economic emergency” to reassign public resources and establish means for channelling money (on a supposedly temporary and limited basis).
He was also quick to formally accept (alongside only the US) Israel’s annexation of the illegally occupied Golan Heights. And he welcomed Israeli figures into Colombia to ‘help’ after the earthquake, despite reportedly rejecting support from Mexico.
His election wish list was a far-right dream. Apart from cosying up to Israel, he pledged to join Trump’s regional aggression by intensifying militarisation, building mega-prisons, and increasing police powers. He also promised to boost exploitation of natural resources, slash private-sector taxes, and gut public spending.
Petro’s left-wing Historic Pact coalition could, however, put up some resistance as the biggest force in Colombia’s congress until 2030.
Past: Colombia is still emerging from a brutal 50-year civil war, and the country’s right was not happy about the peace deal that ended it. Warmonger de la Espriella looks set to give the right what they want by ramping the conflict up again.