Reasons for the major transformation in Syria. Reading the facts

This is a historical analysis by an eminent Arab scholar, director of the Lebanese site alkhanadeq.org.lb

Translation from Arabic with my notes in bold and in [brackets]

https://alkhanadeq.org.lb/post/8002/أسباب-التحول-الكبير-في-سوريا

Monday, December 09, 2024 03:30

Reasons for the major transformation in Syria. Reading the facts

Syrian demonstrators

In an exceptional historical event, the Syrian regime fell and former President Bashar al-Assad left power in Syria after a 25-year rule, an event that will leave its impact on Syria and the region for the coming years and decades. What are these effects? What are the reasons? How did the fall happen? What is the Turkish, Israeli and American role? What is the position of Iran and Hezbollah? Who will rule Syria? And many other questions that people ask, we answer some of them in this article.

Tripartite aggression on Damascus.. Syria towards division!

Syria's strategic importance, geopolitical location, and political position in the Arab-Israeli conflict, especially its support and backing of the Lebanese and Palestinian resistances, made it a juicy target for the Israelis and Americans for years. After the aggression on Gaza and Lebanon, and in continuation of the project to dismantle, divide, and weaken the region in service of Israel, the American-Israeli-Turkish trio began a plan to overthrow the Syrian state by supporting and backing armed groups, especially Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), taking advantage of the moment and the preoccupation of the resistance axis in an unprecedented military confrontation with the temporary entity on several fronts, which the Turkish Foreign Minister was frank with his Iranian counterpart in Doha and told him, "We took advantage of the opportunity." The American project aims to fragment the region and generalize the Libyan scenario, and for Syria to become 3 entities: Sunni, Alawite and Kurdish, also with the aim of punishing the state and former President Bashar al-Assad for his refusal to disengage from the resistance and cut off supply routes to Lebanon, which Netanyahu revealed on the same day the ceasefire between Lebanon and "Israel" came into effect, and he said "Assad must pay the price." After "Israel" ended its aggression in the south, it began its aggression in its third round in the north, and the occupation army sent additional forces from the Golani and Nahal brigades to the Golan under the pretext of preventing the threat of armed groups. However, it began to enter 14 km deep into Syrian territory according to Channel 12 Hebrew, and it continues its aggression with the aim of establishing a security belt and a buffer zone from the side of Quneitra and Mount Hermon, reaching the Damascus countryside, and it is separated from the capital by only 20 km.

The nature of the relationship between the armed groups and Turkey?

The rapid advance of the armed groups loyal to Turkey towards Aleppo, Hama and the Syrian provinces, reaching Damascus without a fight by the Syrian army to preserve the blood of the Syrians, as the Syrian Minister of Defense Ali Mahmoud Abbas said, is mainly due to the American economic strangulation and blockade on Syria, its government, people and army, through the Caesar Act, until the Syrian people in all its spectrums are suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis, while the areas of the armed groups loyal to Turkey in Idlib were living in much better conditions thanks to Turkish funding and support and the absence of a blockade on them.

The most important Syrian armed factions participating in the movement, which includes dozens of groups, were the "Free Syrian Army" and "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham", which received training, arming and funding from the Turkish intelligence service, which supervises the management of the attack of these groups, which announced that their target is Damascus and their meeting place is in Umayyad Square. This prompted observers to describe what happened as a Turkish occupation of an Arab country, which is Syria, which the Arabs view with concern and will lead to an Arab and Gulf position rejecting the occupation of Syria, and this new reality.

The Doha meeting, which included Turkey, Iran, Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar at the level of foreign ministers, stressed the cessation of military operations in preparation for launching a comprehensive political process, which stipulates the formation of a national unity government, and Turkey, Iran and Russia will monitor the ceasefire process and the withdrawal of foreign forces from the country until the end of 2025. This suggested to everyone that the settlement that took place in Doha was to secure a peaceful transfer of power in Syria.

By reading the Syrian and regional scene, it becomes clear that the Turks did not hide their historical ambitions in Syria (Aleppo, Hama and Damascus), and today they are a tool for the Americans to implement the New Middle East project that Netanyahu spoke about, and today we are entering a new episode among the episodes after the war on Gaza and Lebanon, and we have entered a new phase in which Syria is not the only one that has changed, but the political scene in the region may change.

The Turkish role in toppling the Syrian regime can be summarized under the following headings:

- Turkey, as a member of NATO, played a major role in supporting the Syrian armed groups with weapons, training and financing.

- Turkey played a role in transferring Israeli weapons to the armed groups in the region.

- Relations between Turkey and "Israel" and cooperation between them, especially since Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa, and the extent of their cooperation and coordination in the Syrian arena.

- Turkey was unable to hide the truth of its historical goals and ambitions in Syria, as was evident through the statements of some Turkish political figures and their media outlets that Aleppo, Hama and Damascus are part of Turkey and the Ottoman Empire and we intend to restore them.

Iran's Role in Syria

After the outbreak of the Syrian movement in 2011 and its transformation into an armed opposition, followed by the growth of Takfiri groups such as ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, classified as terrorist organizations, Iran entered Syria at the official request of the Syrian state and government, and sent military advisors from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and contributed to the recovery of most of the Syrian territories occupied by these organizations with the help of forces from the axis [of resistance] countries, in support of the resistant Syria, which is considered an essential part and pillar of the resistance. Iran also began, alongside Russia, the Astana process for reconciliation between Turkey and Syria, and participated in about 22 sessions that led to understandings and agreements, but they were not implemented by both parties, Damascus and Istanbul, despite pressure from Tehran and Moscow on Damascus to accept them. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic [Iran] extensive efforts to help the Syrian state and people in confronting the American siege and the Caesar Act, and spent about 18 billion dollars in Syria according to accurate information from informed Iranian sources following Syrian issues.

Did Tehran leave Assad alone?

Iran announced today that it rejects the division and dismantling of Syria and that it is with the choice of the Syrian people, and that it is with what the Syrians want, according to a statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry. However, the question is the extent to which Iran stands with Bashar al-Assad or leaves him alone as rumored. According to field information, it can be said that the Syrian state and army refrained from fighting the armed groups to spare the blood of the people, according to a statement by the Syrian Minister of Defense, or because of the weakness of the army and the betrayals of some of its officers and soldiers, according to eyewitnesses. Bashar al-Assad also did not ask Tehran to send military support and backup [this fits in with the analysis of Alexander Mercouris, who blames Assad’s passivity for the defeat] according to what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview on Iranian television last night. This was due to calculations related to his new relations with Arab and Gulf countries, and his bet on their standing with him, and also his bet on the Syrian army, which Assad himself was surprised to find did not want to fight, but rather abandoned its positions and was betrayed by some officers and soldiers who received phone calls, so they left their positions on the fronts. This is why Tehran did not send combat forces to Syria. It cannot fight on behalf of anyone, especially since the owner of the house does not want that. Rather, Tehran worked strongly on the diplomatic track through the Doha negotiations to return Turkey and Syria to the Astana track, with the aim of preserving the unity of Syrian territory, and obtaining understandings with Istanbul that guarantee certain interests concerning Syria and its future, the region, its countries, and its peoples.

Iran and al-Julani!

In the context, private information confirms that Iran had opened channels of communication with the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, from the gate of Turkey, some time ago, with the aim of opening a window in the wall, facilitating dialogue between the state and the opposition, and the necessity of preserving the unity of Syrian territory. Rather, it made efforts with the Syrian state and former President Bashar al-Assad to urge him to start a dialogue with the opposition, and to carry out change and reform, but to no avail. [Assad refused to dialogue with Turkey, although Turkey had accepted large numbers of Syrian refugees. Assad knew that many of these refugees were Salafists (sympathizers with the jihadists) and hence, posed a threat to Syria]

The Iranians bet on the success of this communication similar to the communication that Iran established with the Taliban movement for years, and provided them with weapons to confront the Americans until Iran reached a written security agreement with the Taliban movement when it returned to power and after a review conducted by the movement, and the Iranians succeeded in turning this threat into an opportunity, so that the Taliban movement no longer poses a threat to Iran.

The Iranian role and effort in Syria can be summarized as follows:

- Iran stood by Syria on the basis that it stands by (friendly and sister) countries as long as they want and request it. [Unfortunately, Assad apparently did not request military help to fight the terrorist invasion]

- The Iranian presence in Syria came upon an official request from the Damascus government and within the framework of international law.

- Iran did everything in its power to support the government and people in Syria on several levels.

- Iran provided advisory and military assistance to combat terrorism and preserve the unity of Syrian territory.

- It contributed to the reconstruction of Syria's economic and military infrastructure and provided economic and humanitarian assistance as part of Iran's efforts to restore security and stability after the crisis.

- Iran contributed strongly to the defeat of ISIS and its fellow terrorist groups, and to establishing security in the liberated areas.

- Helped the Syrian central government deal with separatist plans and prevent the partition of Syria. [but now, according to this article, the American project is to divide Syria up into several parts. This project favors the Israeli Greater Israel project]

- Strengthened strategic relations with Syria to deal with common regional threats.

- Iran has always supported legitimate governments in the region against foreign interventions, especially American, Israeli and Turkish intervention in Syria and the region.

- Iran considered Syria to be the front line of resistance against the temporary Israeli entity.

- Iran cooperated with Syria to create a unified axis of resistance in the region.

- Iran emphasized the strategic importance of Syria in regional equations.

- Iran offered many martyrs in support of Syria.

Lebanon and the dramatic developments in Syria

In Lebanon, where Hezbollah sensed the danger of the push of armed groups loyal to Turkey and others towards the Syrian interior, and what some of these groups revealed about their intentions regarding the relationship with "Israel", and their identification with the American goals in terms of besieging the resistance and weakening it, as a senior official in the opposition Free Syrian Army told the newspaper "The Times of Israel": "We are open to friendship with Israel [this refers to the Syrian “opposition” groups, essentially terrorists], and we have no enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran," and he added, "What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a lot, and now we are taking care of the rest."

In light of the accelerating events and to prevent bloodshed, Hezbollah withdrew its forces from Syria to the Lebanese border, and implemented a wide deployment on the border as well as the Lebanese army in anticipation of any security development, and kept its eye on the border crossings on the one hand, and on the occupied Syrian Golan, where the Israeli army deployed additional forces from the Golani and Nahal brigades in the occupied Syrian Golan on the other hand. Indeed, what Hezbollah expected and warned of happened, as the occupation army began carrying out a ground military operation, and did not limit itself to air strikes on the Syrian capital, or the international road between Beirut and Damascus, which confirms Hezbollah’s fears and the correctness of its position regarding the existence of a danger coming from the gates of Damascus; this project is led by the American-Israeli-Turkish tripartite alliance. Hezbollah's main concern is to protect the resistance from "Israel", which is trying to surround it and cut off its supplies from the Syrian gate. For this reason, it fought the Takfiri groups years ago in the outskirts, the eastern chain, and inside Syria, given the public threat these organizations represented to Lebanon and the resistance. However, if the armed groups that entered Damascus today show their good intentions towards Lebanon and the resistance, and clarify the nature of their position towards the Israeli entity, it does not seem that Hezbollah will have a problem in dialogue with them and coexisting with the new reality.

The Israeli Role in Syria

There is hardly a day that passes without the occupation [Israeli] leaders threatening Syria with revenge and making it pay the price because of its supportive stance towards the resistance, and that it is the lung from which the resistance breathes, especially the military supply lines. Tel Aviv has communicated with some armed groups, supported them and treated their patients in its hospitals. [Israel has always supported terrorists, including ISIS] Then, over the years, it has targeted the Syrian army's power hubs, especially weapons and missile stores, and development and armament factories to the extent that it has exhausted and weakened it. Israel has also targeted the resistance in Syria, its capabilities and its supply lines, which prompts Hezbollah to find other innovative ways to maintain its military capabilities in the face of the ongoing Israeli threat. This may be through activating and developing the current military manufacturing, especially missiles and drones, and preserving the strategic stockpile that it possesses and that is sufficient for years, as well as other methods that its military experts are working on.

The Israeli role in the transformation taking place in Syria can be summarized in the following titles:

- Carrying out repeated air strikes on Syrian territory and targeting airports, power stations and vital centers.

- Israeli attacks targeted Syrian infrastructure, military bases, resistance factions and allies (Iran and Hezbollah).

- Israel's attempt to establish a security belt or buffer zone on the borders of the occupied Golan.

- Pressure in international organizations to recognize its sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan.

- "Israel" supported some armed groups in southern Syria and provided them with logistical and medical support, especially the Al-Nusra Front organization.

- Established relations with local Syrian groups with the aim of dividing Syria and changing the geopolitical map, the Kurds and the SDF as an example.

- Mossad's activity in collecting information and influencing internal forces and stirring up strife in Syria.

- Israeli intelligence cooperation with Western countries against Syria

- Israel's attempts to prevent the reconstruction of Syria. [According to eminent geopolitical analyst Alexander Mercouris, Assad apparently turned down Russian offer of financial assistance to Syria. Mercouris wants us to understand that this is just his best guess based on what he knows, but if it is true, then Assad would be Syria’s worst enemy!]

- Israel's support and influence in imposing and tightening the siege and international sanctions on Syria.

- Influencing international policy to prevent Syria's return to stability and peace, as its interest requires a weak, disintegrated and divided Syria. [Yes, that is Israel’s dream for the entire region – divide and conquer, partition big countries into bite-size pieces that can pose no threat to the genocidal state – and the Satanists in Washington are accomplices in this]

- Indirect support of "Israel" for stealing oil and smuggling Syrian antiquities in cooperation with the American occupation forces and agents.

The American role in Syria

The United States of America exploited the fragility of the security situation in Syria after the outbreak of the popular movement in 2011 and the growth of Takfiri organizations and used it as a pretext to enter Syria, establish military bases, and position themselves in sensitive areas, especially on the Iraqi-Syrian border, oil-rich regions, stealing oil, and support for the separatist Kurdish groups (SDF), and the danger of this organization to the unity of Syrian lands and their territorial integrity, so this American occupation presence was also in service of Israeli interests, and the goal was to fragment Syria, divide it, and weaken its army and society.

Who is al-Julani, the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham?

Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaa, known as "Abu Muhammad al-Julani". He decided in the midst of the Battle of the Flood of Al-Aqsa that the people and resistance in Palestine are fighting, to start the "[Hay’at] Tahrir al-Sham" war under Turkish guidance and planning and indirect American and Israeli support, against one of the pillars of the axis of resistance in the region, namely Syria, the state and the people. Instead of participating in the efforts to liberate the holiest spot in the Levant, which is Palestine, Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa Mosque, from the most hostile enemy of this nation, which is the Israeli occupation, he preferred to confront the Syrian army. [The author wants us to understand that Julani is NOT a devout Muslim and is working against the interests of Islam in support of US-Israel]

What is the most important information about Al-Julani and his relations with Turkey and others?

_Ahmad Hussein Al-Sharaa was born in 1982 in Saudi Arabia [a strongly Wahhabist – anti-Shiite -- country at the time, which has moderated its position since then], where his father worked as a petroleum engineer until 1989, and his family's origins go back to the occupied Golan Heights.

_In 1989, his family returned to Syria, where he grew up and lived in the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus.

_It is said that he studied medicine in Damascus for two years, before leaving his third year of study to join Al-Qaeda in Iraq after the US invasion in 2003

_He moved to Lebanon in 2006 after the killing of Al-Zarqawi, and it is said that he supervised the training of the "Jund Al-Sham" [literally, the Levantine Division] group, which is classified as a terrorist organization.

_He then traveled to Iraq again, where US forces imprisoned him for a period of time in Camp Bucca, and joined the "Islamic State" [ISIS] organization in Iraq (the basic structure of ISIS).

_Al-Julani returned to Syria on the orders of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in August 2011, where he established a branch of al-Qaeda to fight the Syrian state, which he called "Jabhat al-Nusra" [lit. Nusra Front].

_Jabhat al-Nusra quickly gained notoriety due to its effectiveness on the battlefield, including suicide bombings and assassinations, and enjoyed significant support from foreign fighters, who continue to fight in its ranks to this day.

_Over the past few years, he has made major changes to his movement in order to polish his external image, and has shown a pragmatic willingness to change the name of his movement and even its appearance to conform to Western appearances. The name of his movement has changed from "Jabhat al-Nusra", then "Jabhat Fateh al-Sham", and finally "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham".

As for his path to overthrowing his leadership, it began after April 2013, when al-Baghdadi announced that Jabhat al-Nusra would merge with ISIS to create a unified entity, which al-Julani rejected, instead declaring his allegiance to al-Qaeda and its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

In 2016, al-Julani announced that Jabhat al-Nusra had severed its ties with al-Qaeda and renamed itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham [lit. Levantine conqueror Front] (this militia did not change any of its principles or methods, and its behavior remained similar to that of other terrorist organizations).

_ Under his leadership, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham became the dominant force in the Syrian province of Idlib, which was the last major stronghold of armed groups. By eliminating the factions competing with him, he was able to tighten his grip on this province, and transformed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham into a quasi-government (under the title of the Salvation Government, which established courts, public institutions, and tax systems, and appointed itself as the de facto authority in Idlib).

_The US State Department placed him on the terrorist list in May 2013, and the UN Security Council's ISIS and Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee placed him on the list of terrorists subject to sanctions since July 24, 2013.

Al-Julani is also one of the most prominent figures pursued by the United States of America, and has offered more than $10 million to anyone who provides information on his whereabouts.

Although it was able to kill ISIS leaders in Syria, and despite Al-Julani's many public appearances, it has not taken any practical field steps to eliminate him, which indicates the US administration's desire to employ him to achieve its interests, and when it benefits from him, it will resort to getting rid of him, and it will arrange for this to happen as with Al-Baghdadi, Al-Qurashi, and others.

_ In 2021, he made headlines when he appeared in an interview with American journalist Martin Smith, wearing a suit and tie instead of a military uniform and turban, seeking through this to present himself as a pragmatic leader focused on protecting the people of Idlib.

His relationship with Turkey

Despite Turkey’s official classification of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization, the reality on the ground reveals a radically different relationship, rather a relationship between a follower (al-Nusra) and a follower (Turkey).

Turkey sought to prevent a comprehensive attack on Idlib by the Syrian state and its allies, considering it a buffer zone to protect its borders and prevent the influx of large numbers of refugees. In return, al-Julani committed to securing Turkey’s interests in the region, acquiesced to the establishment of Turkish military observation posts and bases in the region, and replaced the Syrian currency with the Turkish currency, and helped it maintain security and governance in Idlib, which reduced the need for its direct military intervention.

His relationship with Qatar and Saudi Arabia

During the first years of the war on Syria, Gulf states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia provided financial and logistical support to armed groups, including Jabhat al-Nusra. However, Saudi support stopped as Mohammed bin Salman’s priorities shifted towards aggression against Yemen.

The Suspicious Relationship with the Temporary Entity [Israel]

After severing ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016 and renaming it Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, al-Julani largely avoided direct speech against the Temporary Entity, which some saw as a sign of not confronting it, and this is what actually happened.

Between 2013 and 2016, Jabhat al-Nusra took control of territory close to the occupied Golan Heights. Numerous videos and evidence revealed that Israel provided medical and food aid to Jabhat al-Nusra, as part of its "good neighbor" policy.

Writer:

Dr. Muhammad Shams

- Media professional and political researcher.

- Professor of Media at the Lebanese University.

- PhD in Philosophy and Theology.

- Director of the Al-Khandaq website.