Why Trump – despite his bluster – probably won’t attack Iran
Trump has blustered about attacking Iran. On the campaign trail, Trump urged Israel to hit the nuclear sites in Iran. But Trump declined to answer whether or not he would strike once he is elected.
On the campaign trail, Trump urged Israel to hit the nuclear sites in Iran. But Trump declined to answer whether or not he would strike Iran once he is elected.
Fair enough. You keep mum about that sort of thing.
The above-linked video on X seems to have been posted on or around Oct 4, 2024.
Five days later, euronews reported the following after Israel allegedly attacked Iran on Oct 19, 2024.
No nuclear sites were damaged after Israel allegedly launched retaliatory strikes against Iran, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
By now, I imagine someone trusted by Trump has informed him that this Israeli missile strike failure would have been due to Iran’s S- 400 missile system acquired from Russia under a strategic agreement. It is more than likely that a S-400 missile shot down whatever Israel launched at Iran.
Even if Trump has only limited intelligence, he would know by now that the upcoming official signing of a very serious strategic alliance in January 17, 2025 will make Iran one of the most dangerous targets on the planet.
Message: Hands off!
If I allowed myself to make predictions, I would predict that Trump will not try to strike Iran any time from here on out.
I have said as much even before when Russia and Iran were still talking about a defense agreement with Russia guaranteeing Iran’s security. It was already known before the Israeli failed strike that Russia was sending military aid to Tehran, so why Israel was stupid enough to launch that April strike is anyone’s guess. I suspect they are living in the past, suffering from a bad case of normalcy bias. Let’s hope to Yahweh they get over it before they start WW III with a nuclear armed Russia.
And BTW, if Russia is capable of defending Iran, you might wonder why it could not prevent the terrorists’ takeover of Syria?
That was a different matter. The Syrian armed forces stood down and apparently did not lift a finger to help save their country. According to Alexander Mercouris, the military was woefully underpaid – something like $40/per month! Syria, under the US Caesar Sanctions, and with its life blood – oil and wheat – sucked out of it by the immoral and criminal US military – simply wasn’t up to the job of defending anyone (and the officers may have been bribed to boot).
Iran is a completely different matter, with a military imbued with an ideology that motivates them to fight to the death if need be.
If either Israel or the US dares to step into that trap, they will rue the day they did so.
…
Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
https://tsargrad.tv/articles/tramp-opozdal-na-tri-dnja-sojuz-rossii-i-irana-menjaet-vsjo_1112443
Sergey Latyshev
December 28, 2024 06:00
Trump is three days late: The alliance of Russia and Iran changes everything
And yet it will happen. The dramatic geopolitical intrigue will end on January 17. On this promising day, which will be historic, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who will come to Moscow for this, will sign the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. It makes the signatories not only close allies, but also opens up exciting prospects for cooperation in all areas. And, of course, it will have a positive impact on the situation in Eurasia, Transcaucasia, and South Asia. Both countries, despite everything, must be together, helping each other succeed and better prepared to fight our powerful enemies.
The West and Israel did everything to prevent Russia and Iran from getting even closer – they did everything they could to slow down the signing of this agreement, tried to drive a wedge between Moscow and Tehran, by intriguing and tempting. But they also "helped" Tehran (Russia had long wanted to sign this agreement) not only overcome certain doubts, but also become the main interested party in it: to sign it quickly, so that Moscow, God forbid, would not change its mind.
This order appeared on the Kremlin website on September 18.
The agreement covers all areas of bilateral cooperation and will open new horizons in various areas of Russian-Iranian cooperation, including defense, energy, transport, industry, agriculture, culture, science and technology. Of course, military cooperation will not be forgotten.
Important details
The signing was supposed to take place at the BRICS summit in Kazan, but the Iranians said it was too crowded and there would be too much fuss, so let's sign it some other time. Moscow politely agreed. And then the US held presidential elections, which were won by a big Iran-hater, Donald Trump, and it finally became clear to Tehran that the Americans would never become "brothers" to the Iranians. And then there was the disaster in Syria...
The agreement on comprehensive strategic partnership was planned to be signed at the BRICS summit in Kazan, but there was "too much fuss" there.
Please note: the Iranian embassy in Moscow announced the upcoming signing of the document. But the main thing is the date: the event will take place three days before the inauguration of Trump, who sympathizes with Zionism and Israel and cannot stand Iran. And perhaps will even be ready to bomb it together with the Israelis, so that Tehran does not acquire nuclear weapons.
This threat has sharply worsened after the recent strengthening of Israel in the Middle East and Iran's loss of Syria - now it will definitely want to get "nuclear insurance" so that the Israelis, with the support of the United States, do not bomb their Iranian enemies into ruins in their own country. [The implication here is that it was the US-supported Israel that stupidly pushed Iran into Russia’s arms. The US has been shooting itself in the foot for decades with its bullying]
Russia is acting nobly by signing this agreement with Iran. Since now the United States and Israel will deal not only with Tehran, but also with Moscow. And therefore, they will probably think carefully: will another bloodletting not cost them too much?
A long road in the dunes
To better understand the enormity of what is happening, it is worth recalling that the preparation of the document was almost completed in June of this year, as reported in an interview with TASS by Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko. He expressed hope that "in the near future we will witness this truly historic event."
The editorial work on such a solid document, designed to raise the status of Russian-Iranian relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, lasted almost two and a half years, and today it can be considered complete, Rudenko concluded.
In early July, according to the IRNA agency, Pezeshkian said in a telephone conversation with Putin that the work was completed and Tehran was ready to sign an agreement with Moscow in October at the BRICS summit in Kazan.
We attach great importance to relations with Russia, our friend and neighbor, and will undoubtedly strengthen these relations, the Iranian agency quoted the words of its new president.
How many months have passed since these words? And for some reason, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited Tehran twice this year. Probably to settle the consequences of some Western intrigues, with the help of which our common enemies tried to disrupt the conclusion of the treaty.
The media even got wind of one of them – Russia allegedly supports the creation of an extraterritorial corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan through the south of Armenia, which would cut it off from Iran and lead to the strengthening of Ankara's positions in the region. Moscow reassured Tehran that this was not the case.
Five reasons to go with Iran
Why is the agreement with Iran, which became a member of BRICS on January 1, 2024, extremely beneficial for Russia, despite certain risks associated with the current political moment? Here's why:
Firstly, the interests of Russia and Iran - geopolitical, economic, security, and so on - largely coincide. We can help each other in many ways, both economically and politically. In general and in particular. Iran was the first to help Russia with drones in the Ukrainian war, of which we had a tiny number at first, but which have already made a difference on the battlefield.
Another example is Transcaucasia, where it is necessary to contain Turkey, keep Azerbaijan in good shape (for Baku, in order not to be too obliged to Ankara for the Karabakh victory, limiting Turkish influence is now only beneficial, saving it from the fate of a vassal), not to allow the Turkic neighbors to devour the temporarily crazy Armenia, with which Iran has relations that go back even further than Russia.
Secondly, Iran is Russia's ally in the fight against the so-called Islamic terrorists nurtured by the West, primarily Britain and the United States. The Shiites [Iran is majority Shiite] have not committed a single terrorist attack in Russia. Iran is interested in peace in Transcaucasia, stability in Afghanistan, and has allies in a number of countries (Iraq, Yemen, etc.), which could be useful to Russia in a hybrid war with the West.
Thirdly, Iran has accumulated valuable experience, worthy of study, including by Russia, on how to become a developed country, develop industry, the military-industrial complex thanks to Western sanctions. It has a very interesting political system, which in fact, despite Western cries about the "mullahs' regime", is more democratic than in the West.
Fourthly, Iran is Russia's only guaranteed outlet for our exports and imports to a number of rapidly developing countries in South Asia and the Middle East. The Baltic and Black Seas, which are connected to the Atlantic by narrow straits, can be easily blocked. Russia has too many enemies there. Europe has no decent future at all.
Fifthly, in this regard, our future is not only trade with China, the countries of Southeast Asia, the Northern Sea Route, but also the international transport corridor "North-South" to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, foreign trade and transit cargo flows around the Caspian Sea, a gas pipeline from north to south along its bottom, designed to replace the "Nord Streams" blown up by the Americans.
Why is this important?
At present, the "hub" for Russian gas supplies to the EU, which refuses it for political reasons, is NATO Turkey, which does not recognize Crimea as Russian and has claims to leadership in the "Turkic world", a country that has fought major wars with Russia 12 times.
After the inevitable departure (for he is not immortal) of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who can sit on several chairs at once, and his replacement by a pro-Western president, it can show Russia such hostility that we will not sell any gas to Europe. From which China will inevitably draw its own conclusions, reducing purchase prices. This will not happen if Iran, which is invulnerable to Western pressure, becomes Russia's gas "hub" in the most promising region of the world.
It is now, under Erdogan, who skillfully balances on several chairs at once, that Turkey is a "gas hub" for Russia. But what will happen after the inevitable departure of the "Turkish sultan"?
The Iranian embassy in Moscow expects that the agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Iran, "one of the most important economic projects of the two countries," will be implemented in the near future. This is about the strategic memorandum signed on June 26 by Gazprom and the National Iranian Gas Company. According to it, about 300 million cubic meters of gas will be supplied daily - or about 110 billion cubic meters per year - from Russia to Iran through the Caspian Sea along its bottom. This is about 45% of the country's current gas consumption, where it is the main source of energy. Under the terms of the agreement, Iran will be able to resell surplus imported gas to other countries.
The agreement will be concluded for 30 years and will bring Iran about 10-12 billion dollars a year. Russia, which has and will have a large surplus of gas after the closure of the European market, will also earn well. China will not be able to buy all the available volume, pursuing a policy of diversifying supplies.
The price of gas for Iran will be, according to calculations, about 100 dollars per 1000 cubic meters. Do you think it's not enough? Yes, Russia supplied gas to Europe via the Nord Streams at a higher price. But its "threads" - three out of four - were blown up by the Americans, and the money earned by the Russians for gas exports was frozen, read stolen, by the Europeans. And now they are also suing... Gazprom for breaking gas supply contracts, and this farce is really just beginning! Which business is more profitable?
According to experts, it will take three or four "threads" [pipes] to pump the given volume of gas, and five years or more to implement the project. And it is even more difficult to say how much it will cost. Several tens of billions of dollars - for sure. Russia has construction experience.
And someone might say: how so! Iran ranks third in the world in gas production - after the United States and Russia, producing more than it consumes. This is, of course, true. But it is all logical. Gas sells well on the world market. Iran's main deposits are in the south of the country, and in the north, especially in winter, there is an acute shortage of it. Iran, we repeat, lacks for domestic consumption approximately the same volume of gas that Russia intends to supply.
By selling large volumes of blue fuel to Tehran and further, possibly, to South Asia via the Iranian route, Russia is not only cementing its ties with Iran, which received observer status in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) at the end of this year, but is also acquiring effective leverage over Turkey and China. In a while, they will have to compete for our gas with Iran, and possibly with India.
Conclusion
In conclusion, two important points should be noted. Firstly, the development of Russia's ties with Iran in all areas fits completely into the new paradigm of international relations - regionalization on the ruins of globalization and the ability to protect its economic and trade interests by force of arms. We are practically neighbors, we have strong armed forces, it will be difficult for enemies to disrupt our logistics. This means that investments will not burn out.
Secondly, before entering into a serious confrontation with the West (hybrid war, proxy war and precision strikes are already a reality), and Iran also with Israel, both countries would do well to better prepare for this economically and militarily. This is what needs to be done
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Yemen Rises by the Millions to Confront the Occupation Without Limits or Red Lines
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I just received a tip to a wild story about Jolani that appeared on Hal Turner’s site. I was about to post it but first checked out Hal on the net.
Here is what I found:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner
Guess I will pass on that since I could not find any confirmation of the wild story. I will continue to search from time to time but not holding my breath.
**
I have been reading Mondoweiss for years. In the earlier of those years, Mondoweiss was my only source of news about Israel.
Dear Mondoweiss reader,
Donald Trump has vowed to “set the Palestine movement back 30 years.” Now, as he gets ready to enter the White House, he appears poised to follow through on that promise.
This threat will be multi-pronged. It will include attacks on Palestine activists, restrictions on freedom of speech, penalties against pro-Palestinian organizations, and, of course, overwhelming support for Israel’s efforts to erase Palestinians once and for all.
We can't let that happen. With days left to raise $103,280, every donation counts! Whatever amount you can give, $10, $20, or even $100 helps us expose the truth. Will you help us?
Trump is taking aim at all those who stand up for Palestine - which includes us here at Mondoweiss. With your support, we are ready to take on the challenge head-on.
While other news organizations have started to move on from the daily horrors of the Gaza genocide and cower from the threat of a new Trump administration, Mondoweiss will not.
We won’t because you have our back.
You give us the support and strength we need to stand up for justice in Palestine, and together we will continue forward even as repression rises and the news from Palestine appears more dire.
Thank you for your support when we desperately need it.
Adam Horowitz, Managing Editor
**
Our thanks to AN for this:
https://www.sott.net/article/496906-US-and-UK-planning-terrorist-attacks-on-Russian-bases-in-Syria
https://www.rt.com/russia/610108-us-uk-terrorist-attack-russian-bases-syria/
The US and UK are planning terrorist attacks on Russian bases in Syria in order to prevent the situation in the country from stabilizing. Ater the Israeli-induced fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government, Washington and London have set a goal of “maintaining chaos in the Middle East” in order to achieve a lasting dominance over the region. They will blame it on the fighters of Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), who were released from prisons after the regime change in the country. However, Russia's military presence on the Mediterranean coast of Syria has been hampering their plans.
Be careful. This is serious .. Richard Wolff’s last warning
OR
https://yandex.ru/video/preview/3635744532888244249
**
Here’s your air strike update for Dec 30, 2024
Search phrases for those who want to do their own research:
EN phrase for translation: Dec 30, 2024, russian missiles, drones, bombs hit Ukraine
Translated into RU: 30 декабря, 2024, российские ракеты, беспилотники, бомбы поражают Украину
Google translate:
https://translate.google.com/?sl=auto&tl=en&op=translate
To optimize results, searches must be done in Yandex search –
https://ya.ru/
Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
09:46, December 30, 2024
Russian Armed Forces strike hangar with equipment and deployment site of Ukrainian Armed Forces
Underground activist Lebedev: Russian Armed Forces destroyed drone operators' warehouse in Sumy
Anastasia Alimpieva
Anastasia Alimpieva (editor of the operational information department)
The Russian military struck a drone warehouse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in the city of Sumy, as well as a hangar with enemy equipment in the Poltava region and a temporary deployment site of Ukrainian soldiers in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This was reported to RIA Novosti by the coordinator of the pro-Russian Mykolaiv [Nikolayev in RU] resistance Sergei Lebedev.
According to the underground activist, Sumy was hit hard. "They destroyed a drone operators' warehouse, along with several Bandera ghouls," he said. [Bandera generally refers to Neonazis, ie, followers of Nazi terrorist Stepan Bandera during Operation Barbarossa, ie, the German invasion of Russia]
Speaking about the attack on the deployment site of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Lebedev specified that there were wounded as a result. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces struck the Kharkov region. The attack was on a certain building, where, according to Lebedev, there was previously "someone serious"
Earlier it was reported that a Russian fighter single-handedly destroyed a group of Ukrainian soldiers during an attack on a stronghold.
**
Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
Strikes on Ukraine: military airfields and power facilities destroyed
Military airfields and drone launch sites were damaged in Ukraine – Defense Ministry
1SIMFEROPOL, December 30 - RIA Novosti Crimea. The Russian army struck power facilities in Ukraine, destroyed military airfields and command and launch sites for attack drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This was reported by the Russian Defense Ministry on Monday.
The strikes were carried out by operational-tactical aviation, attack drones, missile forces and artillery.
"Damage was inflicted on power facilities that ensure the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, the infrastructure of military airfields, storage depots, command posts and launch sites for attack drones, as well as concentrations of manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 143 districts," the military ministry’s report says.
In addition, air defense forces shot down four HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 65 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
**
Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2024/12/30/24748448.shtml
December 30, 2024, 12:46
Russian military hit power facilities and airfields in Ukraine
Russian military defeated the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 143 districts
Matvey Ignatyev
The Russian Defense Ministry reported that Russian military hit a number of facilities in Ukraine.
We are talking about power facilities, military airfield infrastructure, warehouses, control points and drone launch points in 143 districts.
It is also reported that Russian air defense systems shot down four HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 65 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In addition, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the Center group repelled 11 counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Drone attacks on Russian regions began in 2022 against the backdrop of a special military operation in Ukraine. Kyiv has not officially confirmed its involvement, but in August 2023, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian president's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that the number of UAV strikes on Russia "will increase."
The question is what will Benjamin Netanyahu order Donald Trump to do to Make Israel Greater. Zionist billionaires have big plans to rebuild the new Mideast housing projects.