Ukraine: Trump babbles, Putin resolves
Watching a meeting between Trump and Putin would be like watching a teacher quizzing his most hopeless pupil. However, Trump will probably be fine if he lets Putin do most of the talking.
Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets.
https://ria.ru/20241217/tramp-1989530861.html
08:00 17.12.2024
Negotiations with Trump are no longer necessary: Putin's plan for Ukraine has worked
Kirill Strelnikov
The closer the date of Donald Trump's inauguration as the new-old US president gets, the more Pavlov's dogs twitch from the opposite impulses: some are salivating over the beautiful plans for a final peace in Ukraine, while others are squealing in pain and despair.
One thing is clear to everyone: Ukraine has lost, and with it the cardboard carnival under the sign "Support Ukraine for as long as it takes" has gotten wet under the Donbass snow, and now the question is who will call the tired waiter and pay the bill.
Yesterday, The New York Times took on the role of maitre d', which for the first time so specifically and unequivocally stated that the client is not showing any signs of life and has already begun to stink, which means "it's high time to plan the post-war phase of the conflict." According to the publication's experts, there are only four options for the final agreements, which should include some kind of security guarantees for Ukraine (in other words, that bloodthirsty Russia will not attack peaceful Ukrainian puppies and kittens again).
The first is that Russia remains with the liberated territories, the rest of Ukraine joins NATO. But there is a sharp and irreconcilable split in the NATO camp on this issue, and besides, Trump and his team are against it (we are not even talking about Russia's clearly defined position). Zelensky's wishes and hysterics are of no interest to anyone. Cross it out.
Option two: Russia keeps the liberated territories, but instead of the United States, post-war security for Ukraine is guaranteed by a certain "coalition of guarantors", which, in all likelihood, is understood to be a group of several European NATO countries. Considering that Trump plans to minimize US involvement in Europe and the Ukrainian conflict, no three-finger combination will work by default in the absence of the United States. Cross it out.
Option three: the same, but "peacekeepers", that is, NATO soldiers, are introduced into the remnants of Ukraine. No matter how hard Europe tries, the amusing Euro-regiments will not be able to play any role by definition, and Russia will not allow the alliance's troops on Ukrainian territory. We cross it out.
Option four: "armed neutrality". Russia stays "with its own", and Ukraine pumps up its military muscles with the condition of "the absence of any restrictions on the size of its army and any conventional weapons that the country can produce or acquire". According to the authors of the article, this is the most achievable option, although it is "the most disadvantageous for Ukraine".
Conclusion: Trump has already internally said goodbye to Ukraine and wants to end the war with minimal costs, without taking on any responsibility, and under any option will never provide Kyiv with American security guarantees. All that remains is to bargain something from Russia in exchange for decency. Given yesterday's statements by Trump's future security adviser Mike Waltz, who confirmed that "there will be no more blank checks to Ukraine," and future special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg, who voiced Trump's desire to end the conflict "within a few months," this conclusion seems to be true.
Except for one thing: Russia, in fact, no longer needs any negotiations or compromises, because everything has come to what our president initially warned and spoke about.
Since the coup in 2014, Vladimir Putin's proposals for Ukraine and the collective West have been more than acceptable and feasible, but as they were rejected, they became tougher, and the result "on the ground" became more and more convincing and irreversible. Now, according to Bloomberg, "Russia has no motive for compromise, because it is winning." [Sounds like a change of opinion in Establishment journalism] This means that if the West, with or without Trump, tries to raise the stakes again, Putin's final conditions based on the Istanbul agreements will be revised towards tougher ones without any internal torment - let's recall the remark of the Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, who hinted that there could be more oblasts of Russia to be liberated.
In other words, the conditions for ending the conflict have already been written and are lying in the Kremlin, there is nothing special to discuss there and no one to discuss them with, and the opposing side is politely invited to sign them until the fairly imminent moment when their expiration date expires. [This leaves absolutely nothing for Trump to do about the matter except silently sign on the dotted line]
As for the hysterical threats of the West regarding nuclear escalation, the rumors about a direct conflict with NATO and other mantras in the style of "to the last European", they were finally answered at yesterday's meeting of the board of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which was attended by President Vladimir Putin and the head of the department Andrei Belousov. The main points of the telegram on demand to Brussels and Washington:
The staffing level of the Russian Armed Forces has been increased to 1.5 million servicemen, Russia will maintain the potential and balanced development of nuclear forces, and 2024 was a turning point for the special operation, with the Russian Armed Forces firmly holding the strategic initiative along the entire line of combat contact (everything you sent there was trashed, and if you send more, we will write it off even faster);
the staffing level of the Russian Armed Forces has been increased to 1.5 million servicemen, Russia will maintain the potential and balanced development of nuclear forces, and the completely non-nuclear "Oreshnik" will soon be mass-produced;
Russia is considering and preparing for any development of the situation, including a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe in the next decade (it will not be possible to take us by surprise, we see everything and are taking measures, don't even think about it).
Apparently, this telegram was delivered. For example, yesterday, the co-chairman of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Tino Hrupalla, clearly worried, said that "the German government should recognize the fact that Russia has already won the conflict in Ukraine and help resolve it," and the Minister of Defense of the Netherlands Ruben Brekelmans called for an urgent agreement with Russia, "before Trump does it." The only sad thing is that in order to ultimately return to what Putin initially spoke about, the West sacrificed a million Ukrainians and destroyed our brotherly country with its own hands - and we will never forget this.
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Our thanks to AN for this:
Child victims of Israel’s war in Lebanon
https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/11/5/child-victims-of-israels-war-in-lebanon
AN
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Turkey threatens to shoot down Israeli warplanes
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If you listen carefully to Alexander Mercouris linked below, and then read the translation of the RIA Novosti article below that, you will have a better understanding of why Trump’s proposed “peace plan” was a non-starter from the outset – just as I wrote back on Nov 10.
It all boils down to reading what Putin has said about his expectations in Ukraine.
Listen to the latest presentation of Alexander Mercouris
Putin, Belousov: Kiev regime illegitimate, Ru army bigger, stronger; long conflict with the West
https://yandex.ru/video/preview/12650580263810119195
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Here’s your air strike update for Jan 17, 2024
Search phrases for those who want to do their own research:
EN phrase for translation: Dec 17, 2024, russian missiles, drones, bombs hit Ukraine
Translated into RU: 17 декабря, 2024, российские ракеты, беспилотники, бомбы поражают Украину
Google translate:
https://translate.google.com/?sl=auto&tl=en&op=translate
To optimize results, searches must be done in Yandex search –
Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
Dec 17, 2024, 12:15
The air force struck mercilessly: In Ukraine, "342 strikes" howled - and ambulances sped. Thick black smoke arose - the underground
The Russian underground reported a massive strike in the Zaporizhzhya oblast. In Ukraine, not only sirens, but also official resources sounded, reporting 342 strikes. According to sources, after a series of strikes, a massive detonation began, thick black smoke poured out, and ambulances rushed.
According to Ukrainian resources, over the past day, 342 strikes were carried out on the territory of the Zaporizhzhya oblast occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces alone. According to the coordinator of the Mykolaiv underground, Sergei Lebedev, the enemy may be deliberately exaggerating the number of strikes in order to justify three factors at once: its retreat, the loss of equipment and, most importantly, "the shelling of private houses near the line of combat contact by the Ukrainian Armed Forces." This is being done to drive out local residents, firstly, to create firing points in private houses, and secondly, to loot to their heart's content, Lebedev noted.
He also reported on the consequences of the strikes in the oblast, which were confirmed by local residents:
In the village of Lobkovoe. According to sources, a highway runs through it, there are abandoned houses and other buildings suitable for temporary deployment points (TDP) and ammunition storage (AS). According to eyewitnesses, Russian aviation did not spare the enemy's military points. Even neighboring villages felt the power.
An air strike was carried out on one of these premises near the highway. An explosion was felt and a detonation was heard in neighboring villages. A couple of hours after the strike, three ambulances arrived from Kamenskoye for survivors, Lebedev specified.
Strikes in Gulyaipole have intensified. According to the underground, Russian troops are approaching here and launching strikes with unguided rockets (unguided missiles) in the area of the local pond.
The area there is closed by checkpoints, but, according to the Resistance, there is a Banderite temporary deployment point in that place. According to various sources, from 50 to 100 soldiers. The number depends on rotation attempts. There were several drone strikes on enemy positions. One of the strikes hit a truck with a cannon on a trailer. The Banderites were moving towards the local grain elevator, he specified. [The Russian word for Banderite literally means a follower of the ideology of Stepan Bandera, a well-known Nazi who, during the German invasion of Russia in WW II, sided with the Nazis, slaughtering Poles and Russians. His birthday is still celebrated now in the Zelensky regime. Sometimes the word banderovets (pl. banderovtsy} seems to be used broadly just in reference to Ukrainian soldiers per se, regardless of their ideology.]
Locals, describing the direction, say that the strike came from the direction of the Agricultural College. On the territory of the college there are several large premises suitable for living, and there are even hangars for military equipment, Lebedev added.
Several artillery strikes were also carried out on the south-eastern outskirts of the city, in the area of the dachas [Slavic style summer cottages]. Enemy artillery periodically operates from the direction of the dachas. One of the strikes was with a good detonation, heard in the center of Gulyaipole itself. There were also strikes with unguided aircraft missiles in Novoandreyevka in the direction of Romanishina Balka, where there are several production facilities.
Serious strikes were carried out in Malaya Tokmachka. There were strikes by MLRS rockets and barrel artillery. They report a strike in the direction of Orekhov correctional colony 88, but closer to the railway station. There are several large hangars and warehouses there. Strikes have already been carried out there, and repeatedly. But, apparently, there is something to finish off, Lebedev said. According to local residents, the incoming attack was accompanied by a large emission of dense black smoke. The underground coordinator explained that this indicates fuel tanks were hit. After landing, several ambulances went in that direction. They took the wounded and the dead toward the city of Orekhov.
They fired with varying intensity at Banderites in the settlements of Shcherbaki, Novodanilovka, Kamenskoye and at fortifications with dugouts near the line of combat contact. What is interesting: [the militants] report that 15 houses and infrastructure facilities were destroyed, but... CIVILIANS were not harmed! This speaks to the accuracy of the strikes! Lebedev pointed out.
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Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
13:45, 17 December 2024
Russian military hit a dugout with Ukrainian infantry near Chasovy Yar
Russian troops hit a dugout with Ukrainian infantry near Chasovy Yar with a UAV drop
Alevtina Zapolskaya
Alevtina Zapolskaya (Editor of the "Former USSR" department)
Russian military hit a dugout with Ukrainian infantry near Chasovy Yar with a UAV drop. This was reported by TASS.
"Fighters of the Sever [North] V brigade tracked down two enemy soldiers during a rotation and attacked them with a drone, dropping a grenade," said a representative of the volunteer corps as part of the "South" group of forces.
The Ukrainian soldiers revealed their location by heading to their positions after being wounded. As a result, Russian artillery destroyed the Ukrainian dugout with a precise strike. UAV operators also dropped missiles, clearing the trenches of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Earlier, the coordinator of the Mykolaiv underground, Sergei Lebedev, said that Russian troops struck the temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Gulyaipole, Zaporizhia Oblast. He specified that the strikes were carried out with unguided air missiles in the direction of the pond, where the territory was closed by checkpoints.
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Translation with my notes in bold and in [brackets]
https://rg.ru/2024/12/17/nachalsia-massirovannyj-udar-dronami-geran-po-kievu.html
17.12.2024 12:08
Massive strike by Geran drones on Kyiv has begun
Anton Valagin
Russian Geran attack drones are attacking Kyiv. The WarGonzo project reported on the drone raid.
The strike is traditionally combined: along with the Gerans, Gerbera decoy UAVs flew to the Ukrainian capital. Their task is to distract the attention of the Ukrainian air defense, depleting its ammunition.
The Gerberas are smaller in size, and instead of a warhead, they have a Luneberg lens - a device that makes the object carrying it appear larger on the radar screen than it actually is. The lenses in the Gerberas are of such a size that they can pass themselves off as Gerans.
There are also reports of drones flying in at night and explosions caused by them in the Poltava, Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts.
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Scholz loses confidence vote against his government, triggering early elections
Story by Tamsin Paternoster
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Our thanks to Harley Schlanger for this:
EIR Daily News, Dec 17, 2024
https://eir.news/2024/12/daily-brief/eir-daily-news-tuesday-december-17-2024/
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Putin-Trump summit
https://tsargrad.tv/slovo/sammit-putina-i-trampa_1095307
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What is said in the article linked below applies to all US wars, notably Ukraine, Israeli wars and genocides, and also the Syrian coup.
Who got us into the Iraq War?
http://www.hugequestions.com/Eric/TFC/FromOthers/list-of-neocons-for-Iraq-war.htm
…
Re the above article, here is a companion piece: https://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/how-jewish-is-the-war-against-russia/
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Hindustan Times: Netanyahu in panic mode Iran-backed Houthis fire hypersonic Palestine 2 missile at Tel Aviv
https://yandex.ru/video/preview/3073475396871261361
(yes, panic is right. The Zionazis are saying they intercepted this missile, but if it is in fact hypersonic, then that is disinformation. There is no known air defense that can shoot down a hypersonic missile.)
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Hindustan Times: Houthis bleed Israel
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Houthi Shahed drones could wipe out Israel!
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Israel's biggest lie destroyed by horrifying new report:
Seismic backlash in Syria as Netanyahu worsens crisis:
Russia rains fire on Netanyahu:
Israel’s aggression against Syria angers Putin:
"Lawless": Marwan Bishara on Israel's bombing of Syria 800 times and expanding occupation of the Golan Heights and beyond:
'Jerusalem Next': Syria HTS Chief Julani Vows to enter Jerusalem:
Israel fears HTS takeover of Jerusalem:
AN
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Our thanks to AN for this:
This is how Israel behaves. Even vermin does not do such things:
“After the army left, the army threw burning bombs [fire bombs?] at the school, and those who remained inside and tried to take cover were burned alive by the Israeli army,” al-Sharif said. While al-Sharif did not clarify the nature of what he described as “burning bombs,” other reports from witnesses indicated that it was artillery shelling.
First time reader; great update.
Trump stands in real danger of behaving in pigheaded fashion in Ukraine and sparking a wider confrontation with Russia. The recruitment of warhawks to his staff is a very bad sign.
Let's hope cooler heads prevail. This myth of American exceptionalism leads to nothing but mayhem and murder, followed by rampant political instability.
The Putin-Trump summit article is good. Thanks for the heads up.
Seems to me that Russia's position is clear and the US has yet to acknowledge it in the slightest and the appointment of Kellogg as Envoy doesn't look promising.
But Ukraine is not really about Ukraine. It's about whether or not the West can continue to rule by financial hegemony backed by military muscle. Even if that is still possible, it almost certainly isn't for long. The rise of Asia, and also Eurasia now including India, Persia and Russia is inevitable, indeed already long underway; the only way it can reasonably be stopped is with unreasonable nuclear devastation, aka the insanity of MAD.
So: can the West, led by Trump, come to an acceptable accommodation with this emerging Eurasian civilizational bloc? He will not say so now, prior to negotiating but he has dropped some hints that he is aware of this. First, he has several times mentioned how the status of the dollar is on the brink of failure. Second, his recent jokes about Canada as the 51st state. The first indicates that he is aware of America's increasing fragility due to geopolitical developments which accelerated after he left office under a cloud. The second hints that the future geopolitical configuration accommodating the proposed 'multipolarity' will feature both North and South America as a natural civilizational bloc.
Trump embraces an 'America First' policy which he has described not as being that America has to be the only Top Dog in the world - which seems to have been Biden's understanding - but that the American government is there first of all to serve the best interests of the American people. Yes, this might involve military adventurism, but basically it involves vibrant trade, industry, employment and, as he has often recently emphasized, Peace. How can Trump effect peace with Russia in a way that doesn't get him assassinated or impeached in the US, for his biggest enemies are all around the White House, not in the Kremlin.
A grand bargain is needed, one which will require the Israel question to be resolved so that the neocons embedded in all Western governments cease their restless, unending push to inflame the region and related power so that they can get their way. If Israel can be settled, then domestic US policies can include long overdue reform and then America has a shot at joining the multipolar world as a leading civilization state but no longer a hegemon.
Hard to see any other successful path, but also hard to see how something like could transpire. This year is/was, until February 28, a Dragon Year, very powerful changes. Next year is a Snake Year when skins get shed.
Interesting times...